TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks the performance of the USD to INR currency exchange rate at a specific future moment. Participants assess whether the rate will surpass various thresholds, allowing them to speculate on potential economic movements and currency strength dynamics.
All markets resolve based on the USDINR exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above its respective threshold at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect resolution. The structure ensures consistent evaluation across all markets, with each threshold defining a distinct outcome.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where the USDINR exchange rate might head. While analysts may incorporate macro models and policy expectations over longer horizons, traders in this market price in real-time reactions to news, economic data releases, and geopolitical developments that could influence currency movements before Aug 28, 2026.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers submit their own bids and asks. The displayed probability represents the aggregated expectation of all active traders, adjusting instantly to new information flows and order imbalances. Volume of $3,023 indicates the level of interest and liquidity supporting the current price.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final USDINR price at the specified time will be the basis for settlement, reflecting the actual market conditions at that exact moment according to independent sources.
Key signals that could shift this market include major monetary policy announcements from the U.S. Federal Reserve or Reserve Bank of India, shifts in global risk sentiment affecting currency flows, commodity price volatility, and geopolitical developments impacting trade balances. Each of these factors can cause rapid re-pricing as traders adjust positions in anticipation of how they might influence the USDINR exchange rate before Aug 28, 2026.