TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
The markets track the USD to INR exchange rate at a specific moment, resolving based on whether the rate exceeds various predetermined thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different threshold level, allowing participants to speculate on the precise strength of the Indian Rupee against the US Dollar at that time.
All markets resolve based on the USDINR exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above that threshold at the specified time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the outcome.
On Kalshi, odds from this market often reflect a blend of immediate market sentiment and short-term expectations, which can differ from traditional analyst forecasts that may incorporate longer-term economic models, policy outlooks, and historical trends. While analysts might weigh macroeconomic indicators extensively, prediction market participants price in real-time data and may react faster to news or shifts in trading dynamics.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post bids and asks. The displayed odds represent the aggregated wisdom of participants betting on where the USDINR exchange rate will sit at the specified time, adjusting dynamically with new information and trading volume.
This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the final settlement based on the official closing price at the specified time, reflecting the actual market conditions on that day.
Key signals that could shift this market include major central bank announcements, shifts in global risk sentiment, commodity price fluctuations, and geopolitical developments affecting currency flows. Any data releases or policy changes that influence the Indian rupee or U.S. dollar will likely cause rapid re-pricing among traders as the resolution date approaches.