TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Jul 31, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks potential movements in the USD to CAD exchange rate at a specific future moment. Each market evaluates whether the rate surpasses a particular threshold, offering insights into various levels of currency strength or weakness.
All markets resolve based on the USDCAD exchange rate's opening value at 5pm ET on July 31, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate exceeds its specified level (e.g., 1.391, 1.393, etc.), the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth lacks data at exactly 5pm ET, the most recent available value before that time is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect resolution.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often capture a broader range of expectations and can react faster to breaking news or economic data. While analysts may provide detailed reports based on models, traders in this market price in their own assessments, sometimes showing higher or lower confidence depending on recent market movements and sentiment.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set the price through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers agree on the probability of different outcomes. The current top outcome reflects the highest bid and ask prices, with liquidity indicated by volume of $3,177. Prices adjust dynamically based on trading activity and new information affecting the USDCAD exchange rate.
This market resolves around Jul 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price of USDCAD at the specified time will be the basis for settlement, reflecting the actual market value as reported by authoritative financial sources at that moment.
Key signals that could shift this market include major economic announcements from the U.S. or Canada, changes in interest rate expectations, geopolitical developments affecting currency flows, and shifts in oil prices. Any data surprises — such as inflation figures, employment reports, or central bank statements — are likely to cause rapid repricing as traders adjust their positions ahead of Jul 31, 2026.