TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$130,522,377
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,438,389,636
404,028
Markets across
30,214
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,681
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: Aug 28, 5:00 PM EST
Kalshi
This set of markets tracks potential movements in the USD to CAD exchange rate at a specific future moment. Each market evaluates whether the rate surpasses a particular threshold, allowing participants to speculate on currency strength dynamics without predicting exact values.
All markets resolve based on the USDCAD exchange rate's opening value at 5:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2026, as published by Pyth. For any market, if the rate exceeds its specified threshold at that exact time, it resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All rates are evaluated to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact expiration time, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Post-expiration adjustments to the exchange rate are irrelevant for resolution purposes. Each market features a distinct threshold, ranging incrementally from 1.361 to 1.399, allowing participants to assess the probability of the rate exceeding various levels.
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced view of where the USDCAD pair might sit. While analysts may incorporate macro models and policy expectations, traders are pricing in real-time signals and can react faster to breaking news or shifts in sentiment.
This market resolves around Aug 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public sources. The final USDCAD price at the exact time specified will determine which side—above or below the key level—wins, and all contracts settle accordingly based on that verified number.
Key signals that could shift this market include major developments in U.S. or Canadian monetary policy, unexpected changes in interest rate expectations, geopolitical events that affect currency flows, or shifts in oil prices given Canada’s resource exposure. Any data releases impacting either economy’s growth outlook can also cause rapid re-pricing in the market as traders adjust positions.