TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.6b

24H VOL:

$333,432,169

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,971,286,090

419,492

Markets across

40,634

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,654

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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USD x Iranian rials End of October?
polymarket

USD x Iranian rials End of October?

Volume:
$149,585

2.7-2.8M

 - Polymarket

2.7-2.8M - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Nov 1, 2026

Closed: Nov 1, 9:30 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

2.7-2.8M

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$32,124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

2.8M+

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$63,088
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.6-2.7M

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$31,431
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.5-2.6M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$14,167
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<2.3M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,127
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.4-2.5M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,851
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

2.3-2.4M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,797
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Description

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for October 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the finalized USD exchange rate on Bonbast for October 31, 2026. If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. This market will resolve according to the finalized free-market USD exchange rate for the specified date as displayed on Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd), which publishes prices in Iranian toman, where 1 Iranian toman equals 10 Iranian rials (IRR). A daily figure will be considered finalized once the following day’s figure is released. Resolution will occur once the specified exchange rate data point is finalized. If the relevant data is not finalized by the end of the 7th calendar day after the specified date (ET), this market will resolve according to the latest data available at that time. Revisions made after the relevant figure has been finalized will not be considered. If Iran redenominates the rial, or Bonbast changes the unit in which it displays the USD exchange rate, before the relevant figure has been finalized, the displayed figure will be converted into current Iranian rials at the official conversion ratio between the new unit and the current rial (for example, 1 new rial equals 10,000 current rials), and the converted figure will be used for resolution. The resolution source for this market will be Bonbast (https://www.bonbast.com/graph/usd). If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of various outcomes for the USD/Iranian rial exchange rate. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, a price history chart showing how the market has priced the event over time, and the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $4,380. The total volume traded on this market is $149,585. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future value of the USD against the Iranian rial.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts regarding the USD/Iranian rial exchange rate. While analysts often rely on economic models and geopolitical assessments, this market reflects the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. Discrepancies may arise due to differing information access, risk tolerance, or interpretations of the same data. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view on the likely future exchange rate, but this market provides a real-time, incentivized forecast.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the future USD/Iranian rial exchange rate. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure will raise the price, indicating growing confidence in that outcome, and vice versa. This creates a fluid and responsive pricing system.

This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate between the USD and the Iranian rial as reported by a widely recognized and trusted financial data source at the specified time. This ensures an objective and transparent determination of the market's outcome, reflecting the actual exchange rate at the end of October. Traders should monitor news and data releases as the resolution date approaches.

Several factors could significantly impact the USD/Iranian rial exchange rate and, consequently, this market. Major geopolitical developments involving Iran, such as changes in international sanctions or diplomatic relations, would likely cause substantial shifts. Significant fluctuations in global oil prices, given Iran’s role as a major oil producer, could also influence the rial’s value. Additionally, domestic economic policies within Iran, or changes in US monetary policy, could act as catalysts, moving this market as traders react to new information and adjust their expectations.