TOTAL VOLUME:

$119.4b

24H VOL:

$77,805,735

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,423,588,327

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,167,150,414

327,647

Markets across

32,801

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,252

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

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US Tornadoes in September 2026
kalshi
polymarket

US Tornadoes in September 2026

Total volume:
$37
Volume 24h:
$13N/A
Liquidity:
$319
27%
Open interest:
$27
42%

Above 100

 - Kalshi

Above 100 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 15, 2026

Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in September?

43%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 53¢ buys you 189 shares | Odds: 43% Total Payout: $189 | Net Profit: $89 Multiplier: 1.89x | ROI: 89% APY not meaningful 30 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 100

Trade
43%
18%
Yes 53¢No 94¢
47¢
N/A
$14
795%
0%
$9
1mo
active
kalshi

Above 75

Trade
31%
Yes 67¢No 69¢
36¢
N/A
$4
36%
36%
$4
1mo
active
polymarket

75 - 124

Trade
N/A
N/A
68¢
$41
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
31%
Yes 67¢No 69¢
Avg: 52¢Max: 68¢
kalshi

Above 125

Trade
25%
Yes 56¢No 94¢
50¢
N/A
$10
0%
0%
$5
1mo
active
polymarket

125 or more

Trade
N/A
N/A
37¢
$125
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
25%
Yes 56¢No 94¢
Avg: 43.5¢Max: 50¢
kalshi

Above 175

Trade
18%
Yes 14¢No 99¢
13¢
N/A
$5
0%
0%
$5
1mo
active
kalshi

Above 275

Trade
3%
Yes 23¢No 98¢
21¢
N/A
$5
0%
0%
$5
1mo
active
kalshi

Above 25

Trade
N/A
N/A
21¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
polymarket

25 - 49

Trade
N/A
N/A
68¢
$61
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 44.5¢Max: 68¢
kalshi

Above 50

Trade
N/A
N/A
32¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
polymarket

50 - 74

Trade
N/A
N/A
68¢
$46
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
PredictionHero
Market Consensus
N/A
N/A
Avg: 50¢Max: 68¢
kalshi

Above 150

Trade
N/A
N/A
35¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
kalshi

Above 200

Trade
N/A
N/A
35¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
kalshi

Above 225

Trade
N/A
N/A
30¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
kalshi

Above 250

Trade
N/A
N/A
25¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo
active
polymarket

Under 25

Trade
N/A
N/A
77¢
$46
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1mo 1w 6d
active
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during September 2026. The outcome depends on whether the monthly tornado count, as reported by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), falls within specific numerical ranges.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

All platforms use the same official data source (NCEI) and resolve based on the same monthly tornado count for September 2026.Primary resolution logic: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves using the first NCEI-published tornado count for September 2026 after October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET, even if labeled preliminary.
  • Ranges are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, with each bracket inclusive of both endpoints.
  • If no data is published by the scheduled release time, the market resolves based on the most recent prior month's data.

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Data Published: If NCEI fails to publish data by the scheduled release time, the market resolves using the most recent prior month's data.
  • Website Unavailability: If the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until data is made available. If permanently unavailable, another credible source will be used.
Timing: Resolution occurs after the first NCEI publication of the September 2026 tornado count, no earlier than October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET.Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on whether the preliminary count of tornadoes recorded in September 2026 exceeds specified thresholds, ranging from above 25 to above 275. All markets share the same determination method: the official number of tornadoes is sourced from the "Storm Reports Legend" displayed in the bottom left corner of the "Preliminary Report Summary." Each market has a unique threshold, and if the reported number surpasses that threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of tornado activity reaching various levels of severity throughout the month.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the US tornado market aggregates real-time data from multiple venues, showing how traders price the likelihood of tornado activity in the United States during September. It displays consensus odds, volume of $37, and 24-hour volume of $28, letting you see where Polymarket and Kalshi agree or diverge. This gives a live snapshot of collective expectations for severe weather patterns across the country.

On Polymarket, traders currently assign a 79.0% probability to the leading outcome, reflecting crowd-sourced expectations for tornado frequency. These odds often differ from traditional analyst reports, which may use longer-term climate models or historical averages. The gap can highlight where public sentiment diverges from expert views — for example, when recent weather patterns spark heightened concern. Over time, sharp moves in this market may signal emerging risks analysts haven't fully priced in yet.

Price differences arise because each platform attracts distinct trader bases and applies unique liquidity incentives, shaping how odds form. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For instance, Polymarket might see heavier retail participation reacting to short-term storm alerts, while Kalshi could reflect more institutional or model-driven positioning. This can create a spread of 36.0 percentage points between their leading outcomes — Will there be between 25 and 49 tornadoes in the US in September 2026? on one side and Will there be more than 100 tornadoes in September? on the other — until new data pulls them closer.

This market resolves around Oct 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Authorities and weather agencies will compile official tornado counts for September, and those figures will settle the market. No single source defines the result — instead, widely accepted data from government databases and meteorological reviews determine whether the contract’s conditions are met.

Near-term weather developments drive volatility in this market. Early-season storm systems, climatological updates from agencies like NOAA, and satellite imagery showing atmospheric instability can all shift odds quickly. Additionally, unexpected shifts in jet stream patterns or unprecedented heat waves that foster tornado-prone conditions may push pricing toward the higher-outcome side. Traders will watch these signals closely as Oct 15, 2026 approaches.