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319,921

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3,662

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5

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How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
Climate and Weather
kalshi
polymarket

How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?

Total volume:
$23,984
Volume 24h:
$1,521
55%
Liquidity:
$6,972
156%
Open interest:
$8,243
1%

Above 75

 - Kalshi

Above 75 - Kalshi

100%

+11%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

86%88%90%92%94%96%98%

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Aug 22

Aug 24

Aug 25

Vol.

$2.6k

·

Resolves Sep 1, 2026

Time left: 06d:19h:56m

kalshi

Kalshi

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Description

This event group tracks the number of tornadoes that will occur in the United States during August 2026. The markets resolve based on the official monthly tornado count published by the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms resolve based on the same official source (NCEI) using the same timing rules and accept preliminary counts as final.Primary resolution logic: National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page

Core resolution logic:

  • The market resolves based on the first tornado count published by NCEI after September 9, 2026, at 11:00 AM ET
  • Preliminary counts are binding; subsequent revisions do not affect resolution
  • If no data is published by the next scheduled release date, the market resolves based on the most recent prior month's data

Edge cases & clarifications:

  • No Data Published: If NCEI fails to publish data by the next scheduled release date, the market resolves based on the most recent prior month's data
  • Website Unavailability: If the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable on the scheduled date, the market remains open until data becomes available
Timing: Resolution occurs after the NCEI publishes the August 2026 tornado count, no earlier than September 9, 2026Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.
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Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series). Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count. As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time. If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments. The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time. If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.

Kalshi

This event comprises multiple markets, each corresponding to a specific tornado frequency threshold for August 2026. Each market resolves affirmatively if the preliminary number of tornadoes reported for the month exceeds its designated threshold: 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, 175, 200, 225, 250, or 275. The tornado count is determined using the official preliminary report data from the National Weather Service, specifically the tornado count displayed in the "Storm Reports Legend" section of the "Preliminary Report Summary." This standardized source ensures consistent and objective resolution across all threshold markets. Traders can use these tiered outcomes to express granular predictions about August 2026 tornado activity, with each threshold representing progressively more severe or active tornado conditions for the month.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the US August 2026 tornado count market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time odds, volume, and consensus across platforms. It tracks how traders on different prediction markets price the likelihood of various tornado counts occurring in the United States during August 2026. This multi-platform view lets users see how activity evolves leading up to Sep 1, 2026, with metrics such as total volume of $20,996 and recent 24-hour volume of $2,844 helping gauge market momentum and interest.

On Polymarket, odds reflect collective trader sentiment rather than traditional analytics. Currently, the leading outcome shows a strong probability, aligning closely with many meteorological projections for August 2026 storm activity. While analyst forecasts may incorporate long-term climate trends and historical data, this market incorporates real-time trader adjustments based on emerging weather patterns, news, and model updates. The gap between Polymarket’s current price and analyst averages can signal where public perception diverges from expert views, often shifting as new data emerges.

Price differences between Polymarket and Kalshi often stem from varying user bases, liquidity levels, and market design features. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could see slower, institutional-style betting. Additionally, differing fee structures and order types can affect how prices adjust. Right now, Polymarket favors Will 80 to 99 tornadoes occur in the United States in August 2026? at 69.0%, while Kalshi leans toward Will there be more than 75 tornadoes in August? at 99.0%, highlighting how each venue’s dynamics shape its odds.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, once official meteorological records are finalized for August 2026. The outcome is verified against credible public sources that track confirmed tornado events in the United States, ensuring an objective and transparent close. No single entity controls the result—rather, it reflects widely accepted data once the month ends, allowing all participants to compare their predictions with the actual count.

Market movement will likely hinge on seasonal weather patterns, early storm forecasts, and major atmospheric shifts. Key signals include updates from national weather services, satellite imagery showing storm-forming conditions, and preliminary tornado reports as August approaches. Sudden changes in jet stream behavior or unexpected heat waves could also influence odds, especially if they affect the likelihood of severe convective storms. As Sep 1, 2026 nears, real-time monitoring of storm cells and regional alerts will drive rapid price adjustments on both platforms.