TOTAL VOLUME:

$114.6b

24H VOL:

$127,848,495

24H TRANSACTIONS:

1,317,432,675

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,174,740,988

332,361

Markets across

32,151

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

3,013

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

42%

VS.

Kalshi:

58%

BETA

Science and Technology

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

Climate and Weather

kalshi

polymarket

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

Total volume:

$431,016

Volume 24h:

$1,353

65%

Liquidity:

$3,055

2%

Open interest:

$217,449

0.36%

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

- Polymarket

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? - Polymarket

14.9%

+11.6%

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Aug 14

Aug 16

Aug 17

Aug 18

Aug 19

Aug 20

Aug 21

Vol.

$1.1k

·

Resolves Jan 1, 2027

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

Amount

$

Trade on

polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 14.9¢ buys you 671 shares | Odds: 13% Total Payout: $671 | Net Profit: $571 Multiplier: 6.71x | ROI: 571% APY not meaningful 132 days to resolution

You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.

Markets

Outcome

Trade

Chance %

Price

Spread

Liquidity

Volume

24h

7d

Open Interest

Ends in

Result

title

trade

chance

price

spread

liquidity

volume

volume24pers

volume7pers

openInterest

endDate

unifiedStatus

polymarket

Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026?

13%

Yes 14.9¢

No 89.9¢

4.8¢

$3,055

$4,669

6%

39%

N/A

4mo 1w 5d

active

kalshi

Before 2027

6%

Yes 6¢

No 95¢

1¢

N/A

$426,347

0.25%

7%

$217,449

4mo 1w 5d

active

Total markets: 2

Intro

This market tracks whether California will have an earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater in 2026, with the current aggregated consensus at 8.7%, and a secondary outcome of an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake before 2027 at 6.0%. Data is aggregated from Kalshi and Polymarket, with resolution provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Watch for official earthquake reports by the USGS before the December 31, 2026 deadline to see if the market resolves.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Unified Resolution Criteria (Consistent across platforms)

Both platforms require a USGS-reported earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or greater within California's territorial boundaries by December 31, 2026.Primary resolution logic: United States Geological Survey (USGS)

Core resolution logic:

Magnitude must be 7.0 or greater (final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates)
Epicenter must be within California's territorial boundaries (including offshore areas)
Occurrence must be by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET

Edge cases & clarifications:

Border Earthquakes: Earthquakes on the California border will only count if the USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries
Aftershocks/Foreshocks: Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market Yes, regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock

Timing: Resolution occurs after December 31, 2026, once USGS has published final reviewed earthquake data for the yearOur PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Show more

Polymarket

This market will resolve "Yes" if the United States Geological Survey (USGS) (https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/lists-maps-and-statistics) reports at least one earthquake of moment magnitude (Mw) 7.0 or greater with an epicenter located within the state of California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No". The state of California includes the entirety of California as recognized under U.S. law including offshore areas within California's territorial boundaries. Earthquakes occurring on the California border must have their USGS-listed epicenter coordinates fall within California's boundaries. Any individual event meeting the magnitude and location criteria resolves the market "Yes", regardless of whether it is classified as a mainshock, aftershock, or foreshock. Resolution will be based on the USGS's final reviewed magnitude, not preliminary estimates, regardless of when that review is published, but the qualifying earthquake needs to have occurred within California by December 31, 2026 at 11:59:59 PM ET. This market will resolve based on official information from USGS, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying earthquake may also resolve this market in an instance where USGS becomes unavailable.

Kalshi

If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this market is priced through collective trader bets, which currently imply a relatively low probability of a major quake. Analyst forecasts from geological institutions often emphasize long-term risk models rather than annual probabilities, so they may appear more cautious or conservative. The gap between these odds and expert views can highlight where public perception diverges from scientific consensus, sometimes shifting dramatically after notable tremors or policy updates.

Price differences arise because each platform attracts distinct participant bases and applies unique trading mechanics. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, Polymarket currently favors Will California experience a 7.0 or above magnitude earthquake in 2026? at 12.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will there be an at least 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027? at 6.0%. Liquidity levels, user demographics, and even regional news coverage can amplify this spread, creating a 6.5 gap that reflects varied market dynamics rather than a single consensus view.

This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. If a tremor meeting the magnitude threshold occurs anywhere within the defined region before that date, the 'yes' side wins; otherwise, the 'no' side settles. The process relies on widely accepted seismic databases and news sources to ensure transparency and reliability for all participants.

Significant signals include reports of large aftershocks, updates from monitoring agencies about unusual tectonic activity, or policy changes affecting building safety standards. Natural events such as smaller quakes that trigger public alarm can also shift sentiment quickly. Media coverage of preparedness drills or budget allocations for disaster response sometimes creates short-term volatility, while long-term climate patterns influencing fault stress may gradually adjust trader expectations.