TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$143,246,370

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,403,290,006

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,452,035,386

405,032

Markets across

30,543

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,690

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

BETA
Dashboards
Tour
All
Politics
U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?
polymarket

U.S. tariff rate on China on March 31?

Volume:
$1,180,007

5–15%

 - Polymarket

5–15% - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Mar 31, 2026

Closed: Mar 30, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

5–15%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$269,863
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

15–25%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$542,645
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

25–35%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$151,657
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

35%+

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$125,020
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

<5%

0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$90,823
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 10% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 20% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but have not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.