TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,590,312

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,439,516,703

404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,685

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US SPR level for the week ending August 14, 2026
kalshi

US SPR level for the week ending August 14, 2026

Volume:
$30,981

Above 290M

 - Kalshi

Above 290M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 19, 2026

Closed: Aug 19, 10:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 290M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 291M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 304M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,107
N/A
N/A
$3,063
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 301M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,210
N/A
N/A
$2,595
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 299M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,976
N/A
N/A
$3,350
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 309M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,686
N/A
N/A
$2,131
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 308M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,107
N/A
N/A
$2,171
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 305M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,638
N/A
N/A
$1,610
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 311M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,643
N/A
N/A
$1,610
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 306M

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,522
N/A
N/A
$1,522
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 307M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,482
N/A
N/A
$1,482
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 310M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,463
N/A
N/A
$1,417
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 303M

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,020
N/A
N/A
$951
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 300M

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$614
N/A
N/A
$614
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 302M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$506
N/A
N/A
$506
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 298M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 292M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 293M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 294M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 295M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 296M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 297M

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 22

Description

The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) serves as a critical energy security tool, storing crude oil to mitigate supply disruptions. Monitoring its levels provides insight into government preparedness and market dynamics. The status of the reserve in mid-2026 will reflect decisions made around releases, refinements, and global supply conditions during the preceding months.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 14, 2026, released Wednesday morning after that week. The determining figure comes from Table 1 of the U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, specifically the “Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)” row under the Current Week column. Each market has a distinct threshold between 299 million and 311 million barrels; if the reported SPR exceeds that threshold, the market resolves to Yes. The structure allows for a range of outcome possibilities depending on how high the reserve level is relative to these successive benchmarks.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the SPR release market, along with 24-hour volume of $40. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of a U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve release by the specified date. The interface updates in real time to reflect market activity and shifts in sentiment around this key economic event.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, this market often reflects a more immediate, sentiment-driven view of market participants. While analysts may weigh long-term economic indicators, traders react quickly to news, inventory reports, and geopolitical developments. This can lead to divergence — for example, a spike in trading activity might suggest higher immediate concern about supply disruptions than recent poll averages indicate.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers post their bids and offers. The current implied probability reflects the balance of these orders and recent trading volume. Liquidity can vary significantly depending on breaking news or shifts in energy-sector sentiment, influencing how tightly the market price is pinned.

This market resolves around Aug 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will watch official U.S. government announcements and energy-agency disclosures for confirmation of any SPR release actions taken during the specified period. The market settles based on whether the release occurred or not.

Key signals include U.S. Energy Information Administration inventory reports, comments from administration officials on energy policy, geopolitical tensions that affect global oil supply, and unexpected domestic supply disruptions. Any indication of planned SPR drawdowns — even in unrelated contexts — can shift trader sentiment quickly, while reassuring statements or large commercial stockpiles may dampen prices.