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$134.2b

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2,388,728,490

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$1,441,166,947

406,422

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US SPR level for the week ending September 18, 2026
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

What will US SPR level be by September 30?

Volume:
$27,756

Above 280M

 - Kalshi

Above 280M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 23, 2026

Closed: Sep 23, 10:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 280M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,996
N/A
N/A
$2,996
16h 29m
Yes
kalshi

Above 281M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,880
N/A
N/A
$2,880
16h 29m
Yes
kalshi

Above 279M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,414
N/A
N/A
$1,480
16h 29m
Yes
kalshi

Above 282M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,811
N/A
N/A
$1,161
16h 29m
Yes
kalshi

Above 283M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,739
N/A
N/A
$1,117
16h 29m
Yes
kalshi

Above 284M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,227
N/A
N/A
$825
16h 29m
Yes
kalshi

Above 288M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,531
N/A
N/A
$2,362
16h 29m
No
kalshi

Above 289M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,914
N/A
N/A
$2,447
16h 29m
No
kalshi

Above 290M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,494
N/A
N/A
$2,400
16h 29m
No
kalshi

Above 287M

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,397
N/A
N/A
$1,762
16h 29m
No
kalshi

Above 285M

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,846
N/A
N/A
$1,637
16h 29m
No
kalshi

Above 286M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,507
N/A
N/A
$1,269
16h 29m
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This set of markets tracks the level of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending September 18, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific threshold, and the outcome depends on whether the reported reserve exceeds that threshold.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending September 18, 2026. The report is released on Wednesday morning following the stated week-ending date. The relevant data is found in Table 1 of the U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, specifically the 'Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)' row under the Current Week column. Each individual market resolves to 'Yes' if the SPR value for that week is above the specified threshold, ranging from 279 million barrels to 290 million barrels. All markets share the same data source and reporting timeline, ensuring consistency across thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve market tracks the current implied probabilities for various levels of the reserve as of September 18, 2026. You’ll find a dynamic price chart reflecting trader expectations, along with the total volume traded – currently $27,756 – and the 24-hour volume, which stands at $842. This allows you to see how sentiment is shifting and where the most activity is focused within this market. The dashboard also displays the top outcome currently favored by traders.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts regarding the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the collective judgment of a diverse group of traders. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential blind spots in conventional analysis.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve level. Prices are determined by supply and demand; as more traders believe a particular outcome is likely, the price of contracts representing that outcome will increase. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current price reflects the market’s consensus expectation, and traders can adjust their positions based on new information or changing beliefs. Volume indicates the level of interest in each outcome.

This market resolves around Sep 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official level of the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the week ending September 18, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on data released by the US Department of Energy, and the market will settle to the contract closest to the reported level. Traders should monitor official announcements for the definitive outcome of this market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 30, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as disruptions to global oil supply, could lead to a draw from the reserve, impacting prices. Changes in US energy policy, including potential legislation affecting the reserve's management, are also key catalysts. Unexpected economic data, like a surge in oil demand or a recession, could shift expectations. Finally, statements from government officials regarding the reserve’s future use will likely move this market.