TOTAL VOLUME:

$134b

24H VOL:

$103,397,351

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,410,176,180

399,592

Markets across

30,097

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,622

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US SPR level for the week ending July 31, 2026
kalshi

US SPR level for the week ending July 31, 2026

Volume:
$22,609

Above 304M

 - Kalshi

Above 304M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 5, 2026

Closed: Aug 5, 10:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 304M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,693
N/A
N/A
$2,597
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 298M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,563
N/A
N/A
$2,273
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 302M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,460
N/A
N/A
$1,927
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 300M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,554
N/A
N/A
$730
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 312M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,185
N/A
N/A
$2,018
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 316M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,899
N/A
N/A
$2,241
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 310M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,634
N/A
N/A
$1,365
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 306M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$794
N/A
N/A
$676
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 308M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$423
N/A
N/A
$414
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 314M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$404
N/A
N/A
$258
Settled
No
Total markets: 10

Description

This event tracks the level of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a specific week in 2026. It reflects how much oil is stored in emergency reserves, which can be influenced by factors like supply disruptions, policy decisions, and market conditions. The outcome depends on whether the reported reserve exceeds various thresholds.

Kalshi

The event determines whether the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) level for the week ending July 31, 2026, exceeds specified thresholds. All markets resolve based on the Weekly Petroleum Status Report released on Wednesday morning following the week in question. The relevant data is taken from Table 1 of the U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, specifically the 'Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)' row under the Current Week column. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, ranging from above 298 million barrels to above 316 million barrels. If the reported SPR value for that week meets or exceeds the threshold specified in a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same data source and timing, ensuring consistency across thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced view that incorporates real-time trader sentiment and bettor dynamics. While analysts may provide a single expected value or range, the market price captures a probability distribution that can diverge significantly based on recent news, inventory data releases, or geopolitical developments affecting supply and demand.

This market resolves around Aug 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official US SPR level for the week ending July 31, 2026 is verified against credible public sources. The final number reported by the U.S. Energy Information Administration will determine which outcome is settled, closing all positions based on the officially published figure.

Key signals that could shift this market include weekly SPR inventory reports, unexpected changes in federal policy regarding strategic reserves, geopolitical events that affect oil supply chains, and major economic announcements influencing energy demand. Any data surprises or headlines around these themes are likely to cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess probabilities ahead of the final settlement date.