TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.2b

24H VOL:

$126,324,530

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,434,646,834

406,019

Markets across

30,401

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,689

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US SPR level for the week ending August 28, 2026
kalshi

US SPR level for the week ending August 28, 2026

Volume:
$19,379

Above 286M

 - Kalshi

Above 286M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 2, 2026

Closed: Sep 2, 10:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 286M

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,938
N/A
N/A
$2,438
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 285M

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,369
N/A
N/A
$519
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 283M

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$369
N/A
N/A
$369
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 284M

View
100%
6%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$268
N/A
N/A
$246
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 282M

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$92
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 295M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,300
N/A
N/A
$4,300
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 293M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2,461
N/A
N/A
$1,900
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 290M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,684
N/A
N/A
$1,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 291M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,310
N/A
N/A
$1,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 292M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,310
N/A
N/A
$1,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 294M

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,310
N/A
N/A
$1,310
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 289M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,284
N/A
N/A
$650
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 288M

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$468
N/A
N/A
$468
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 287M

View
0%
2%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$216
N/A
N/A
$216
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

These markets track the level of the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve for a specific week in 2026. The outcomes depend on whether the reported reserve exceeds various threshold values, reflecting energy policy and supply dynamics.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) value reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report for the week ending August 28, 2026. The report is released on Wednesday morning following the week in question. Each market has a specific threshold, ranging from above 282 million barrels to above 295 million barrels. If the SPR value exceeds the respective threshold for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The SPR value used for resolution is taken from Table 1 of the U.S. Petroleum Balance Sheet, specifically the row labeled “Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)” under the Current Week column. All markets share the same data source and reporting schedule, ensuring consistency across thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market suggests a very high probability of the SPR level being above 282 million barrels, contrasting with some analyst forecasts that anticipate a more balanced or lower range. The sharp disparity may reflect traders pricing in recent supply disruptions or inventory data trends. Monitoring shifts in this market can offer early signals of changing expectations, often preceding adjustments in formal economic analyses. The gap between market odds and analyst views creates a valuable comparison point for investors tracking energy policy and inventory dynamics.

This market resolves around Sep 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final SPR level for the week ending August 28, 2026, will be drawn from official U.S. government data releases. Traders should watch for the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report, which sets the benchmark for settlement. No additional interpretation is needed — the number reported becomes the market’s final result.

Key signals include weekly U.S. oil inventory reports, geopolitical developments affecting supply chains, and any policy announcements from the Biden administration regarding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Unexpected storage facility outages or changes in export/import volumes could also shift expectations. Additionally, market reactions to broader energy price movements or Federal Reserve statements on inflation may influence trader sentiment. Monitoring these catalysts will help anticipate potential swings in this market as Sep 9, 2026 approaches.