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404,175

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2,685

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5

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US retail sales in May
kalshi

US retail sales in May

Volume:
$15,814

Above 0.6%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.6% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 17, 2026

Closed: Jun 17, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.6%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6,651
N/A
N/A
$4,162
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.4%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,595
N/A
N/A
$2,073
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.8%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,945
N/A
N/A
$1,056
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,181
N/A
N/A
$1,074
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,137
N/A
N/A
$608
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$789
N/A
N/A
$678
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$397
N/A
N/A
$192
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.4%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$119
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Intro

This market tracks whether US retail sales will show month-over-month growth in May 2026, measuring the change in consumer spending on goods relative to April. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that May retail sales will exceed 0.0% month-over-month—stands at 71.0%. The market resolves according to the official US retail sales MoM figure for May 2026, with Yes if the reading comes in above 0.2%. Watch for the release of the May retail sales data on June 24, 2026, which will determine the final resolution.

Kalshi

Resolution is determined by the month-over-month percentage change in United States retail sales for May 2026. Each outcome corresponds to whether the reported MoM figure exceeds a specific threshold, ranging from 0.0% to 1.4% in 0.2% increments. A higher threshold outcome resolves Yes only if the actual MoM figure surpasses that level.

Frequently asked questions

The PredictionHero dashboard tracks real-time odds and trading activity for the US retail sales in May event on Kalshi. You can monitor the current probability of the top outcome, view historical price movements, and observe 24-hour trading volume. The dashboard displays live market sentiment as traders buy and sell shares based on incoming economic data, analyst commentary, and macroeconomic conditions. With total group volume of $15,814 and recent 24-hour activity of $5,780, this market reflects active participation. Use the dashboard to compare current odds against your own forecast and identify optimal entry and exit points for your trades.

Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-time trader expectations about May retail sales outcomes, often diverging from consensus analyst forecasts. While traditional economists may issue point estimates or ranges based on historical trends and leading indicators, prediction markets aggregate distributed information from thousands of participants with financial incentives to forecast accurately. Traders incorporate breaking news, employment data, consumer sentiment reports, and Fed communications faster than formal analyst revisions. Comparing Kalshi odds to Bloomberg consensus or Federal Reserve survey expectations can reveal whether markets are pricing in more optimism or caution than the mainstream view, helping you identify potential mispricings.

The US retail sales in May market on Kalshi resolves on Jun 24, 2026. Resolution is determined by official data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, which publishes the monthly retail sales report including the month-over-month percentage change. The outcome hinges on whether the May figure meets or exceeds the specified threshold. Traders should monitor the Census Bureau's economic calendar for the exact release date and time, as markets typically move sharply on the announcement. Any revisions to prior months may also influence final settlement interpretation.

Key catalysts for US retail sales in May include employment reports showing job creation or losses, consumer confidence indices, inflation data affecting purchasing power, and Federal Reserve policy signals. Retail earnings guidance and point-of-sale data from major retailers can foreshadow spending trends. Gas prices, credit card delinquencies, and wage growth reports influence consumer behavior. Geopolitical shocks, supply chain disruptions, or unexpected fiscal policy announcements may also shift expectations. Additionally, revisions to prior months' retail sales figures can reset baseline expectations. Monitor economic calendars closely and track real-time market reactions to these data releases to anticipate price movements.