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US refinery utilization in November
kalshi

What will refinery utilization be in November?

Oct 15, 2026, 2:00 PM EST - Feb 5, 2027, 1:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$19,445
Volume 24h:
$2,709
6%
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$275
32%

Above 88%

 - Kalshi

Above 88% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Feb 5, 2027

Will U.S. refinery utilization for November 2026 be above 88%?

83%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 97¢ buys you 103 shares | Odds: 83% Total Payout: $103 | Net Profit: $3 Multiplier: 1.03x | ROI: 3% | APY: 12% 102 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 88%

Trade
83%
14%
Yes 97¢No 10¢
7¢
N/A
$2,002
13%
N/A
$20
3mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 94%

Trade
64%
3%
Yes 68¢No 77¢
45¢
N/A
$4,934
16%
N/A
$49
3mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 92%

Trade
32%
64%
Yes 67¢No 75¢
42¢
N/A
$5,792
2%
N/A
$51
3mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 90%

Trade
67%
22%
Yes 95¢No 10¢
5¢
N/A
$4,101
69%
11,618%
$72
3mo 1w 5d
active
kalshi

Above 96%

Trade
62%
Yes 26¢No 99¢
25¢
N/A
$2,614
0%
N/A
$83
3mo 1w 5d
active
Total markets: 5

Description

U.S. refineries may operate at varying capacities depending on maintenance schedules, market demand, and economic conditions. Higher utilization rates often indicate strong demand for refined products, while lower rates can signal excess capacity or reduced demand.

Kalshi

The market resolves based on the U.S. Percent Utilization of Refinery Operable Capacity for November 2026, as reported by the EIA in their monthly series MOPUEUS2. The first published monthly figure, whether preliminary or estimated, will be used for settlement. Subsequent revisions to the data will not affect the outcome. Weekly figures, four-week averages, and forecasts are excluded from consideration. Multiple thresholds (above 88%, 90%, 92%, 94%, and 96%) determine separate market resolutions, each evaluating whether the reported percentage exceeds its specific threshold.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US refinery utilization market tracks the current odds of various outcomes related to November 2026 US refinery utilization rates. You can view the implied probabilities, price history, and 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,709. The total volume traded on this market is $19,445. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different utilization levels, offering insight into market sentiment and expectations.

Currently, it's important to note that analyst forecasts for US refinery utilization in November 2026 vary, but generally center around expectations of rates between 90% and 94%. This market allows for a more nuanced view than a simple 'over/under' prediction, as traders can express beliefs about specific utilization levels. Comparing this market to those analyst forecasts reveals whether the crowd is more or less bullish or bearish than industry experts, and how that sentiment evolves as new information becomes available. It’s a dynamic comparison, constantly updated by trader activity.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing expectations. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and efficient expression of market sentiment regarding US refinery utilization.

This market resolves around Feb 5, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the official US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data for November 2026 refinery utilization is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The EIA data will be the determining factor for settling this market, and the outcome will reflect the actual reported utilization rate during that period. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contracts align with the verified result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market. Unexpected disruptions to crude oil supply, such as geopolitical events or major weather events impacting oil production, could affect refinery utilization. Changes in gasoline demand due to economic conditions or seasonal trends will also be key. Furthermore, planned or unplanned refinery maintenance, regulatory changes impacting refining capacity, and even shifts in refining margins could all move this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding price movements.