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$134.1b

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2,388,728,490

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$1,423,222,590

402,751

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2,632

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5

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US public debt on July 31, 2026
kalshi

What will the US public debt be on July 31, 2026?

Volume:
$978

Above 39.64T

 - Kalshi

Above 39.64T - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 4, 2026

Closed: Jul 31, 11:59 PM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 39.64T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$686
N/A
N/A
$685
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.34T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.39T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.44T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.49T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.59T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$43
N/A
N/A
$43
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.69T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$14
N/A
N/A
$14
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.24T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.54T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.29T

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.74T

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 39.79T

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 39.84T

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 39.89T

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 39.94T

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

US public debt levels on July 31, 2026, reflect ongoing fiscal policy impacts and economic conditions, with markets tracking precise debt ceiling breaches.

Kalshi

Each market resolves to Yes if the total US public debt on July 31, 2026, exceeds a specific threshold, ranging from $39.24 trillion to $39.94 trillion in increments of $0.05 trillion.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a broader set of expectations, incorporating both public sentiment and trader positioning. While analysts may provide detailed reports based on economic models, traders on Kalshi continuously adjust their positions based on new information, news, and market dynamics. This can lead to differences in implied probabilities, especially as Aug 8, 2026 approaches and new data emerges.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through a continuous order book where buyers and sellers agree on the probability of different debt outcomes. The current top outcome reflects the aggregate view of all participants, with odds adjusting dynamically based on trading volume and new information. Volume of $978 and 24-hour volume of $616 indicate how actively this market is being traded on the platform.

This market resolves around Aug 8, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official U.S. Treasury figures are published and verified against credible public sources. The final debt figure for the specified date will settle all positions, reflecting the actual public debt level at that moment.

Key events such as federal budget announcements, changes in fiscal policy, major economic shocks, or shifts in interest rates could move this market. Traders will also watch quarterly Treasury reports and legislative developments that impact government spending or revenue, all of which may alter expectations for the final debt level.