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US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026
kalshi

US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026

Volume:
$20,615

Above 1.5%

 - Kalshi

Above 1.5% - Kalshi

1W

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Positive

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Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 30, 2026

Closed: Jul 30, 8:25 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10,202
N/A
N/A
$9,355
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$139
N/A
N/A
$139
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.0%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$3
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,262
N/A
N/A
$3,013
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 2.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,853
N/A
N/A
$4,186
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.0%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$72
N/A
N/A
$72
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 3.5%

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 7

Intro

This market tracks whether U.S. nominal GDP growth will exceed 0.5% during the second quarter of 2026. On Kalshi, the leading outcome—that nominal GDP growth will be above 0.5%—stands at 91.0%. Resolution will be determined by the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP for Q2 2026 rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series. Watch for the official GDP release scheduled around July 30, 2026, when the Federal Reserve will publish the preliminary estimate for Q2 2026 nominal growth.

Kalshi

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 0.5, then the market resolves to Yes. If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.0, then the market resolves to Yes. If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes. If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 2.0, then the market resolves to Yes. If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 2.5, then the market resolves to Yes.

Frequently asked questions

The Odds & Prediction Markets dashboard on Kalshi tracks real-time pricing for whether US nominal GDP growth will exceed 1.5% in Q2 2026. The dashboard displays the current probability estimate, historical price movements, and trading volume for this economic outcome. With total group volume of $20,615, this market reflects active trader interest in near-term US economic growth expectations. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades execute, allowing you to monitor how market sentiment shifts as we approach the Jul 30, 2026 resolution date.

Key drivers of market movement include Federal Reserve policy decisions and interest-rate guidance, which influence both real growth and inflation expectations. Labor market reports—particularly payroll growth and wage trends—signal consumer spending capacity and inflationary pressure. Consumer confidence indices and retail sales data reveal demand strength heading into Q2. Inflation readings (CPI, PCE) matter because nominal GDP combines real growth and price changes; higher inflation boosts nominal figures. Geopolitical shocks, trade policy shifts, or financial-stability concerns could trigger repricing. Additionally, advance GDP estimates from other quarters and forward guidance from policymakers will refine market expectations as Jul 30, 2026 approaches.