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US new home sales for July
kalshi

What will the US new home sales be for July?

Volume:
$5,715

Above 600,000

 - Kalshi

Above 600,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 9:59 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 600,000

View
100%
27%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$673
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 580,000

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$623
N/A
N/A
$544
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 560,000

View
100%
12%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
$390
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 620,000

View
0%
55%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,948
N/A
N/A
$1,372
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 680,000

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$586
N/A
N/A
$551
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 640,000

View
0%
47%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$572
N/A
N/A
$174
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 660,000

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$535
N/A
N/A
$414
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 700,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$293
N/A
N/A
$270
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the performance of newly constructed homes sold in the United States during a specific month. The data reflects the total number of homes sold at a yearly rate, adjusted for seasonal variations. It serves as an indicator of consumer confidence and the health of the construction industry.

Kalshi

The event evaluates whether the United States new home sales figure for July 2026, reported as a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) in thousands of homes, exceeds various thresholds. Each market corresponds to a different threshold, ranging from 560,000 to 700,000 homes. If the reported figure surpasses any of these thresholds, the respective market resolves positively. The thresholds are incremental, meaning that as the sales figure increases, more markets will resolve positively. The outcome is determined solely by the final reported sales number, with no consideration for previous estimates or revisions. All markets share the same underlying data source and reporting standards, ensuring consistency across thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume for the US new home sales market. It shows how traders on this single venue are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes as the event date approaches. The interface updates continuously to reflect market sentiment and trading activity, giving users a live view of investor expectations for this economic indicator.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a balanced view close to 50/50, differing slightly from many analyst forecasts that predict a more definite direction. While analysts may incorporate additional economic indicators and historical trends into their models, this market provides a real-time aggregation of trader sentiment. The contrast between these two can offer insights into market confidence or skepticism about official projections.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The official figure will come from the U.S. Census Bureau and will determine whether the market settles for the higher or lower outcome.

Several signals could shift this market before Sep 1, 2026. Key economic reports such as housing starts, mortgage rate changes, consumer confidence indices, and federal policy announcements often influence trader sentiment. Natural disasters, sudden shifts in interest rates, or unexpected changes in construction materials costs may also cause rapid movements. Any surprise government interventions or major geopolitical events affecting US economic policy could dramatically reshape market expectations.