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US new home: median sales price in July
kalshi

What will the US new home median sales price be in July?

Volume:
$2,931

Above $375,000

 - Kalshi

Above $375,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 25, 2026

Closed: Aug 25, 9:59 AM EST

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Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $375,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $410,000

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,302
N/A
N/A
$1,220
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $405,000

View
0%
44%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$411
N/A
N/A
$153
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $400,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$334
N/A
N/A
$178
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $425,000

View
0%
9%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$311
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $420,000

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$281
N/A
N/A
$281
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $415,000

View
0%
25%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$121
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $395,000

View
0%
73%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$103
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $430,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $380,000

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $385,000

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $390,000

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 12

Description

This event tracks the future performance of new home prices in the U.S., focusing on whether the median selling price will surpass various thresholds by a specific month. It reflects expectations about housing market trends, economic conditions, and consumer demand influencing home affordability and construction activity.

Kalshi

All markets in this event resolve based on the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS) for July 2026, as reported by FRED. Each market has a specific price threshold, ranging from $375,000 to $430,000. If the published, non-seasonally adjusted value for July 2026 exceeds the respective threshold, the corresponding market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The underlying data source and currency (U.S. dollars) are consistent across all markets, ensuring uniform evaluation criteria. The resolution depends solely on the first official FRED release for the July 2026 observation, with no adjustments for seasonal variations or subsequent revisions.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the US new home price market, along with 24-hour volume of $1,315. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the median sales price of new homes in the United States for July, offering a real-time view of market expectations and activity.

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a broader set of expectations, incorporating both public sentiment and trader positioning. While analysts may provide detailed reports based on economic indicators, this market aggregates real-time betting activity, which can sometimes skew toward more aggressive or contrarian views depending on recent trends and news.

This market resolves around Sep 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final median sales price for July will be determined by official government data releases, and the market will close based on that verified figure.