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US new home · Median sales price in August
⌛Ending Soon
kalshi

What will the US new home median sales price be in August?

Volume:
$1,248

Above $390,000

 - Kalshi

Above $390,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 24, 2026

Closed: Sep 24, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $390,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$151
N/A
N/A
$151
1d 15h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above $365,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
1d 15h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above $380,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$4
1d 15h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above $370,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$6
N/A
N/A
$6
1d 15h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above $375,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$4
N/A
N/A
$4
1d 15h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above $385,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
1d 15h 46m
Yes
kalshi

Above $420,000

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$494
N/A
N/A
$474
1d 15h 46m
No
kalshi

Above $410,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$290
N/A
N/A
$255
1d 15h 46m
No
kalshi

Above $400,000

View
0%
41%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$112
N/A
N/A
$65
1d 15h 46m
No
kalshi

Above $415,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$105
1d 15h 46m
No
kalshi

Above $405,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$62
N/A
N/A
$25
1d 15h 46m
No
kalshi

Above $395,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
1d 15h 46m
No
Total markets: 12

Description

This set of markets tracks various thresholds for the median sales price of newly constructed homes in the United States during August 2026. Each threshold represents a different price point, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of the median price exceeding specific values. The outcomes are determined by official economic data releases.

Kalshi

The markets collectively evaluate whether the median sales price for new houses sold in the United States during August 2026 exceeds one of several specified thresholds ranging from $365,000 to $420,000. All markets use the same underlying data source: the first value published by FRED for the August 2026 observation of the Median Sales Price for New Houses Sold in the United States (MSPNHSUS), expressed in U.S. dollars and not seasonally adjusted. Resolution for each market depends solely on whether the reported median price surpasses its respective threshold. The structure allows participants to bet on the probability of the median price exceeding any of the listed values, with each threshold representing a distinct outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price history for the US new home price market, along with 24-hour volume of $346. It shows how traders on Kalshi are positioning around the median sales price of new homes in August, offering a real-time view of market expectations and liquidity through volume of $1,248.

This market resolves around Oct 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final settlement will reflect the officially released median sales price for US new homes in August, as reported by authoritative sources.

Several signals could influence this market before it resolves on Oct 1, 2026. Key economic reports such as monthly building permits, housing starts, and consumer inflation data often shift expectations for home prices. Changes in federal reserve policy affecting mortgage rates can also impact buyer demand and construction activity. Additionally, unexpected events like natural disasters or supply chain disruptions may affect material costs and construction timelines, prompting traders to adjust their positions in response to new information.