TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.8b

24H VOL:

$277,138,640

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,905,404,943

412,077

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39,838

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4,526

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

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VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report
kalshi

What will mortgage applications change by 2026-11-11?

Oct 28, 2026, 10:15 AM EST - Nov 11, 2026, 7:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$172
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$0N/A

Above -8%

 - Kalshi

Above -8% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 11, 2026

Time left: 08d:06h:15m

Mortgage applications change above −8% in the next MBA report?

87%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 87¢ buys you 115 shares | Odds: 87% Total Payout: $115 | Net Profit: $15 Multiplier: 1.15x | ROI: 15% APY not meaningful Illiquid market 8 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -8%

Trade
87%
Yes 100¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$172
0%
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above -10%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above -6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above -4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above -2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above 0%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above 2%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above 4%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above 6%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above 8%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
kalshi

Above 10%

Trade
N/A
N/A
0¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1w 1d 6h
Active
Total markets: 11

Description

This event tracks changes in U.S. mortgage application activity as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. It focuses on the initial release of weekly survey data following the market issuance date. The outcome depends on whether the reported percentage change exceeds specific thresholds.

Kalshi

Multiple markets exist with varying percentage thresholds (-10% to +10%) for resolving to 'Yes'. All markets share the same underlying data source: the first-published percentage change in the MBA’s seasonally adjusted Market Composite Index from the first new Weekly Applications Survey release after market issuance. The reported change is used directly, with holiday adjustments applied and no further calculation required. If multiple reference weeks are reported, the latest reference week controls. Increases are positive, decreases negative, and unchanged is 0%. The term 'above' means strictly greater than the specified strike. Later revisions, corrections, and subsequent releases are ignored. If publication is delayed, trading remains closed until the qualifying release, subject to contract expiration and missing-data provisions.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for this market tracks the current odds of change in US mortgage applications as reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). You’ll find the implied probability of various outcomes, along with a price history showing how the market has moved over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour volume, currently at $0, and the total volume traded to date, which is $172. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the direction of the US mortgage market.

Currently, prediction market participants are expressing their views on the US mortgage market through their trades on Kalshi. It’s common to see differences between these crowdsourced predictions and those made by traditional financial analysts. This market allows for a dynamic assessment, incorporating a wide range of information and perspectives, which may differ from a static analyst report. Comparing this market’s outcome probabilities to consensus analyst expectations can reveal whether the crowd believes the market will outperform or underperform expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the change in US mortgage applications. The price of a contract reflects the market's collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the prices adjust to reflect new information and changing sentiment. The current market price indicates what traders are willing to pay or receive for a contract, effectively representing a forecast of the future event.

This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the percentage change in mortgage applications as reported in the next MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Traders will look to this report to see whether applications have increased or decreased, and by what percentage, to determine the final outcome of this market. The MBA report is a widely followed indicator of housing market activity and consumer demand.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before it resolves. Key economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, can all impact mortgage rates and therefore application volume. Unexpected changes in Federal Reserve policy regarding interest rates would also be a major catalyst. Additionally, news related to the housing market itself – such as changes in home sales, inventory levels, or construction activity – could move this market. Any significant shifts in these areas will likely be reflected in trading activity on Kalshi.