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US lifts Iran OFAC sanctions by...?
polymarket

US lifts Iran OFAC sanctions by...?

Volume:
$58,746

June 30

 - Polymarket

June 30 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 25, 2026

Closed: Jun 29, 8:00 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

June 30

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
1.4¢
N/A
$24,435
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
polymarket

June 19

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
5¢
N/A
$16,081
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 17

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
1.1¢
N/A
$9,572
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

May 31

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$8,085
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
polymarket

June 15

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$574
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the U.S. government will officially suspend, waive, lift, remove, or materially ease any existing direct OFAC sanctions on Iran by June 30, 2026. On Polymarket, the leading outcome—that sanctions relief will occur by that date—stands at 30.5%, while an earlier resolution by May 31, 2026 is priced at 13.5%. Resolution will be determined by official U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC announcements, with credible reporting used as a secondary source. Watch for any executive orders, official regulations, general licenses, or waivers issued before June 30, 2026 that materially authorize previously prohibited Iran-related activity.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government officially suspends, waives, lifts, removes, or materially eases any existing direct OFAC sanctions on Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Sanctions could include measures like blocking sanctions, financial restrictions, trade restrictions, travel bans, restrictions on specific Iranian individuals or entities, sectoral sanctions, or any other Iran-related measures administered or enforced by OFAC that are commonly recognized as direct sanctions. For purposes of this market, qualifying sanctions relief must materially suspend, waive, lift, or ease direct OFAC sanctions on Iran, the Government of Iran, Iranian persons or entities, Iranian sectors, or Iran-related transactions. Partial sanctions relief will qualify, including relief limited to a specific Iranian sector, Iranian state entity, Iranian financial institution, or category of Iran-related transactions. A new or expanded OFAC general license, waiver, regulation, or other official action will qualify if it materially authorizes activity that was previously prohibited under direct Iran-related OFAC sanctions. Sanctions relief for a non-Iranian third party will not qualify, regardless of whether that party was sanctioned for Iran-related activity. The passage of an official act/executive order or issuance of an official regulation, license, waiver, or other official action lifting or materially easing OFAC sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or easing of those sanctions does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, including the U.S. Department of the Treasury and OFAC, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard on Polymarket tracks real-time odds and trading activity for whether the U.S. will lift direct Iran OFAC sanctions by May 31, 2026. It displays the current probability of the top outcome, historical price movements, and 24-hour trading volume. The event has generated $56,667 in total volume, with $23,087 traded in the last 24 hours. This data updates continuously as traders buy and sell shares, reflecting evolving expectations about U.S. Iran sanctions policy through mid-2026.

Prediction market odds on Polymarket reflect trader expectations rather than public opinion surveys. While traditional polling measures voter sentiment on Iran policy broadly, prediction markets price the specific outcome of direct OFAC sanctions relief by May 2026. Markets incorporate geopolitical developments, diplomatic signals, and political shifts faster than polls update. Traders with financial stakes often embed forward-looking information into prices, making markets a distinct signal of likelihood compared to snapshot polling data on Iran relations.

The market resolves on Jun 30, 2026. Resolution depends on whether the U.S. government has lifted direct OFAC sanctions on Iran by that date. This is a binary outcome: either the sanctions are lifted or they remain in place. The resolution hinges on official U.S. policy announcements and regulatory changes. Traders should monitor State Department statements, Treasury Office of Foreign Assets Control updates, and diplomatic developments between now and the end date to assess the likelihood of sanctions relief.

Key catalysts include U.S. presidential statements or policy shifts on Iran negotiations, diplomatic breakthroughs or breakdowns in talks, regional geopolitical escalations, and Treasury Department regulatory announcements. Changes in Congressional stance on Iran policy, international nuclear agreement developments, and election outcomes could significantly alter market pricing. Sanctions-related executive orders, new diplomatic initiatives, or military tensions in the Middle East would likely trigger sharp price movements. Traders should monitor news on U.S.–Iran relations, nuclear diplomacy, and administration policy changes through May 2026.