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US Leading Economic Index change in September
kalshi

What will the US LEI change be?

Volume:
$737

Above -0.1%

 - Kalshi

Above -0.1% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 22, 2026

Closed: Oct 22, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -0.1%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$400
N/A
N/A
$400
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.2%

View
100%
30%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$205
N/A
N/A
$205
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.1%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.0%

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.2%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$12
Settled
No
kalshi

Above -0.5%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.4%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above -0.3%

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 8

Description

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index aggregates key economic indicators to signal potential trends in economic activity. Tracking its month-over-month percentage change offers insight into anticipated growth or contraction. Markets centered on this index assess various thresholds of change for a specific month, reflecting expectations about economic momentum.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the month-over-month percent change in The Conference Board Leading Economic Index for the U.S. for September 2026, as reported in the first official release by The Conference Board. The reported percentage change is used directly; independent calculations from index levels are prohibited. Subsequent revisions to the data do not affect settlement. These markets exclusively consider the LEI's month-over-month percent change and do not account for the index level itself, six-month changes, diffusion indices, or related indices such as the Coincident or Lagging Economic Indexes. Each market has a distinct threshold, ranging from above -0.5% to above 0.2%, determining a 'Yes' outcome if the reported change exceeds its specific threshold.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, this market reflects a collective prediction about the Leading Economic Index change. Comparing this to traditional analyst forecasts reveals whether the 'wisdom of the crowd' anticipates a different outcome than experts. Often, prediction markets can incorporate information more quickly than polls or analyst reports, potentially offering a more up-to-date assessment of economic trends. It's important to note that discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies and the types of information considered when forming these forecasts. This market provides a unique perspective on economic expectations.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the future change in the Leading Economic Index. The price of a contract reflects the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price will adjust to reflect the collective assessment of the market. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a real-time evaluation of economic expectations, distinct from static analyst predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 29, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official change in the Leading Economic Index as reported by The Conference Board for September 2026. Traders will then receive payouts based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual percentage change. This allows for a clear and objective determination of the market's outcome, based on established economic data.

Several economic signals and events could significantly influence this market. Unexpected changes in GDP growth, employment figures, consumer confidence, or inflation rates could all shift trader sentiment. Geopolitical events, such as major trade disputes or global economic shocks, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, any revisions to previously reported economic data could lead to price adjustments. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the fluctuations in this market as we approach the resolution date.