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$154.2b

24H VOL:

$192,072,993

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,983,476,643

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,842,388,377

408,027

Markets across

40,419

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4,369

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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US jobs revisions in the report covering October 2026
kalshi

What will US jobs revisions be?

Oct 1, 2026, 8:00 PM EST - Nov 13, 2026, 8:30 AM EST
Total volume:
$5,888
Volume 24h:
$0N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$189
0%

Above -100,000

 - Kalshi

Above -100,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 13, 2026

Time left: 10d:18h:53m

Will the U.S. two-month net payroll revision in the report covering October 2026 be above -100,000?

88%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 91¢ buys you 110 shares | Odds: 88% Total Payout: $110 | Net Profit: $10 Multiplier: 1.10x | ROI: 10% High Projected APY: 2,186% 10 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above -100,000

Trade
88%
Yes 91¢No 13¢
4¢
N/A
$1,938
0%
117%
$19
1w 3d 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 0

Trade
30%
Yes 36¢No 72¢
8¢
N/A
$1,519
0%
46%
$77
1w 3d 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 50,000

Trade
39%
Yes 15¢No 95¢
10¢
N/A
$1,072
0%
106%
$14
1w 3d 18h
Active
kalshi

Above -50,000

Trade
27%
Yes 75¢No 34¢
9¢
N/A
$743
0%
85%
$16
1w 3d 18h
Active
kalshi

Above 100,000

Trade
22%
Yes 2¢No 99¢
1¢
N/A
$615
0%
8%
$63
1w 3d 18h
Active
Total markets: 5

Description

This event tracks adjustments to U.S. employment data for the two months before October 2026. The adjustments reflect changes made when the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes updated figures in the October 2026 report. The outcome depends on whether the combined adjustment meets specific thresholds.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on the combined net revision to U.S. nonfarm payroll employment for the two months preceding October 2026, as published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ initial Employment Situation report for that month. The combined revision is calculated by summing the revisions for each of the two months, with upward revisions counted as positive and downward revisions as negative. The resolution uses the figure reported in the October 2026 release; if a combined figure isn’t explicitly stated, the two individual revisions will be summed. Benchmark adjustments, seasonal adjustments, and other effects incorporated into the two-month revision are included, while separate annual benchmark figures and revisions to other months are excluded. Subsequent revisions to the data after the October 2026 report will not affect the outcome. Markets with different thresholds (e.g., above -100,000, -50,000, 0, 50,000, or 100,000) resolve to Yes if the combined revision exceeds their respective thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US jobs revisions market tracks the current odds of various outcomes for the revisions to the US jobs report covering October 2026. You’ll find a price history chart illustrating how the market has priced in information over time, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $0. The total volume traded to date is $5,888. This allows you to see how much activity is occurring and the overall interest in this particular event.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the likely magnitude of the US jobs revisions. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on models and individual opinions. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and perspectives than a single analyst might consider. This dynamic pricing can offer a unique signal compared to standard economic predictions.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes for the US jobs revisions, and the prices reflect the probability of each outcome as perceived by the market participants. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price of a contract indicates the implied probability of that outcome occurring; higher prices suggest a greater likelihood. This creates a dynamic and real-time assessment of expectations for the revisions.

This market resolves around Nov 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official revisions to the US jobs report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the period covering October 2026. The specific revisions will be compared to the initial estimates to determine the outcome of this market, reflecting the net change in reported employment figures.

Several economic indicators and events could significantly influence this market. Unexpected shifts in overall economic growth, changes in unemployment rates leading up to the October 2026 report, and revisions to prior months’ data are all potential catalysts. Major policy announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy could also impact expectations for job growth and, consequently, the US jobs revisions. Any surprising data releases related to labor market conditions will likely cause price movements in this market.