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399,592

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5

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U.S. jet fuel above __ in next weekly EIA release?
limitless

U.S. jet fuel above __ in next weekly EIA release?

Volume:
$304

$2.600

 - Limitless

$2.600 - Limitless

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 16, 2026

Closed: Jul 15, 3:00 PM EST

limitless

Limitless

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
limitless

$2.600

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
4.9¢
N/A
$180
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
limitless

$2.900

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
-91.1¢
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the weekly observation dated July 10, 2026 for “Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast (dollars per gallon)” in the EIA weekly release currently scheduled for July 15, 2026 is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Petroleum & Other Liquids spot prices page, with period set to Weekly: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_w.htm The price used for resolution will be the weekly observation dated July 10, 2026 shown on that page. Weekly observations are labeled by week ending Friday. According to EIA’s methodology notes, weekly prices are calculated from daily data as an unweighted average of the daily closing spot prices for the specified period. This market will resolve once the relevant weekly observation is published on the EIA source page. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source. If the EIA does not release the relevant weekly observation on the July 15, 2026 ET, this market may remain open up until July 21, 11:59 PM ET. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the most recent prior weekly observation available on the source page.

Limitless

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the weekly observation dated July 10, 2026 for “Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel Prices: U.S. Gulf Coast (dollars per gallon)” in the EIA weekly release currently scheduled for July 15, 2026 is strictly higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Petroleum & Other Liquids spot prices page, with period set to Weekly: https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_w.htm The price used for resolution will be the weekly observation dated July 10, 2026 shown on that page. Weekly observations are labeled by week ending Friday. According to EIA’s methodology notes, weekly prices are calculated from daily data as an unweighted average of the daily closing spot prices for the specified period. This market will resolve once the relevant weekly observation is published on the EIA source page. Price precision is determined by the number of decimal places in the source. If the EIA does not release the relevant weekly observation on the July 15, 2026 ET, this market may remain open up until July 21, 11:59 PM ET. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the most recent prior weekly observation available on the source page.

Frequently asked questions

On Limitless, the U.S. jet fuel price market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movements for predictions about whether jet fuel will trade above a specified threshold in the next weekly EIA release. The dashboard shows current market sentiment, 24-hour trading volume, and order book depth, allowing traders to monitor how the market reprices as new energy data and supply reports emerge. This gives participants a live window into collective expectations around near-term fuel costs and refinery output trends.

Prediction market odds often diverge from traditional analyst forecasts because they aggregate real-money bets from thousands of traders with direct financial incentives to forecast accurately. While energy analysts publish price targets based on models and supply-demand analysis, this market reflects live consensus from participants who profit or lose based on actual EIA data. The two approaches can complement each other: analyst reports may shift market odds when released, while sustained trader conviction can signal gaps in consensus estimates or emerging data surprises.

On Limitless, this market is priced through an order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing "yes" or "no" outcomes. On Limitless, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Prices reflect the probability implied by the last traded price, with tighter spreads typically appearing during high-volume periods and wider spreads during quieter trading windows. Traders can place limit or market orders, and the market price updates continuously as new orders execute, ensuring that odds stay responsive to breaking energy news and EIA report expectations.

This market resolves around Jul 15, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution hinges on whether jet fuel prices in the next weekly EIA release fall above or below the specified threshold. Traders should monitor official EIA announcements and energy market data releases leading up to the end date to assess the likelihood of the outcome.

Weekly EIA inventory reports, crude oil price swings, refinery maintenance schedules, and geopolitical supply disruptions are primary catalysts that shift this market. Seasonal demand patterns, hurricane forecasts affecting Gulf Coast production, and airline travel trends also influence jet fuel expectations. Unexpected inventory builds or draws, OPEC production decisions, and macroeconomic data affecting fuel demand can trigger sharp repricing. Traders monitoring these signals often adjust positions ahead of the official EIA release, making intraweek volatility common.