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US ISM Services PMI for September
kalshi

What will US ISM Services PMI be?

Volume:
$5

Above 56.60

 - Kalshi

Above 56.60 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 56.60

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 53.80

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 54.00

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 54.20

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 54.40

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 54.60

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 54.80

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 55.00

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 55.20

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 55.40

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 55.60

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 55.80

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 56.00

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 56.20

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 56.40

View
N/A
N/A
—
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 15

Description

The US ISM Services PMI is a key economic indicator that reflects the health of the service sector, which includes industries like retail, healthcare, and finance. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. Tracking this metric helps analysts gauge economic trends and business conditions over time.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the US ISM Services PMI released for September 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, and if the actual PMI value exceeds that threshold, the associated market resolves to 'Yes.' The thresholds range incrementally from 53.80 to 56.60. The structure allows participants to assess the likelihood of the PMI reaching various levels of strength, with higher thresholds representing increasingly robust service sector performance. All markets share the same underlying data source and resolution timing, tied to the official ISM Services PMI publication for the specified month and year.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ISM Services PMI market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, providing a real-time view of where traders believe the September reading will land. You’ll find a price history chart showing how the market has fluctuated, as well as the 24-hour volume, currently at $5. The total volume traded on this market is $5. This allows participants to gauge market sentiment and trading activity surrounding the upcoming economic data release.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective forecast based on traders’ assessments of the economic conditions and potential impact on the ISM Services PMI. These odds often differ from traditional analyst forecasts, as this market incorporates a wider range of information and perspectives, including real-time reactions to news and data releases. It’s common to see discrepancies between what experts predict and what traders are willing to bet on, offering a unique perspective on potential outcomes for this market.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell contracts at prices determined by supply and demand. As more traders buy contracts indicating a specific outcome, the price for that outcome increases, and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the collective intelligence of the market participants. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for a fluid and responsive assessment of the potential ISM Services PMI reading.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official September ISM Services PMI data is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, published figure for the ISM Services PMI, as released by the Institute for Supply Management. Traders will then know whether their predictions aligned with the actual economic data, and contracts will be settled accordingly based on the final result.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before resolution. Any unexpected economic data releases, particularly those related to manufacturing, employment, or consumer spending, could influence trader sentiment. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy or economic outlook could also have a substantial impact. Geopolitical events or unexpected disruptions to supply chains could also introduce volatility into this market, as traders adjust their expectations based on new information.