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US ISM Services PMI for October
kalshi

What will US ISM Services PMI be?

Oct 5, 2026, 11:10 AM EST - Nov 11, 2026, 10:00 AM EST
Total volume:
$23,141
Volume 24h:
$2,998N/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
$1,505
31%

Above 53.80

 - Kalshi

Above 53.80 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 11, 2026

Time left: 08d:14h:21m

Will US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 be above 53.80?

90%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 90% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 50% 8 days to resolution
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Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 53.80

Trade
90%
Yes 99¢No 74¢
73¢
N/A
$636
46%
47%
$205
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 54.00

Trade
88%
Yes 83¢No 68¢
51¢
N/A
$1,589
0%
209%
$64
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 54.40

Trade
83%
Yes 80¢No 66¢
46¢
N/A
$948
0%
3,546%
$21
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 54.60

Trade
72%
Yes 75¢No 65¢
40¢
N/A
$1,067
0%
31%
$12
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 54.20

Trade
66%
Yes 84¢No 63¢
47¢
N/A
$998
0%
252%
$7
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 55.60

Trade
63%
Yes 60¢No 70¢
30¢
N/A
$564
0%
146%
$80
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 54.80

Trade
54%
Yes 74¢No 71¢
45¢
N/A
$545
1%
N/A
$10
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 56.00

Trade
46%
Yes 40¢No 96¢
36¢
N/A
$3,090
0%
3%
$101
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 55.20

Trade
45%
Yes 66¢No 74¢
40¢
N/A
$1,279
0%
44%
$66
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 55.00

Trade
42%
Yes 70¢No 71¢
41¢
N/A
$958
0%
99%
$104
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 55.40

Trade
38%
Yes 65¢No 81¢
46¢
N/A
$1,158
0%
90%
$22
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 55.80

Trade
18%
1%
Yes 35¢No 89¢
24¢
N/A
$1,133
4%
25%
$115
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 53.60

Trade
92%
Yes 100¢No 90¢
90¢
N/A
$568
54%
1,036%
$214
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 56.40

Trade
50%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$4,919
0%
311%
$359
1w 1d 14h
Active
kalshi

Above 56.20

Trade
2%
Yes 25¢No 100¢
25¢
N/A
$3,690
0%
87%
$123
1w 1d 14h
Active
Total markets: 15

Description

The US ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is a key economic indicator that reflects the health of the service sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signals contraction. Tracking this metric helps analysts gauge economic momentum and consumer-driven growth trends.

Kalshi

All markets resolve to Yes if the US ISM Services PMI for October 2026 exceeds the specified threshold values ranging from 53.60 to 56.40. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical threshold, with higher thresholds representing increasingly stringent conditions for resolution. The outcome depends solely on whether the published PMI value surpasses the respective threshold, and all thresholds are evaluated against the same official data release for the specified month and year.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the ISM Services PMI market tracks the current odds of various outcomes, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $468, and the total volume traded to date, which is $23,141. This provides a clear picture of market activity and sentiment regarding the upcoming release of the October ISM Services PMI data. The dashboard is a central place to monitor how traders are positioning themselves.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market reflects expectations around the October ISM Services PMI release. It’s often the case that prediction market prices incorporate a wider range of information than traditional analyst forecasts, including sentiment analysis and alternative data sources. While many analysts predict a slight increase, this market’s pricing suggests a more nuanced view, potentially accounting for downside risks or unexpected economic factors. Comparing the implied probability from this market to the consensus forecast can offer valuable insights into the collective wisdom of traders.

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different possible outcomes for the ISM Services PMI. The price of each contract reflects the market’s assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders set the odds by placing bids and asks, and the market price fluctuates based on supply and demand. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments as new information becomes available, making it a responsive indicator of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the official October ISM Services PMI data is released and verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the final, published figure for the ISM Services PMI, as reported by the Institute for Supply Management. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen outcome aligns with the reported data. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the market’s result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before resolution. Unexpected economic data releases, such as employment figures or manufacturing PMI data, could shift expectations for the services sector. Any major geopolitical events or shifts in global economic sentiment could also play a role. Furthermore, statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding monetary policy or economic outlook could impact trader behavior. Finally, revisions to previous PMI data could prompt reassessments of the current economic climate and move this market accordingly.