US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?
Start: 2026-08-21T20:25:41.000Z
End: 2026-08-24T23:59:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes. Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify. The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct. The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, this dashboard displays the current odds and price history for the Iran sanctions market, along with 24-hour volume of $31,338. It shows how traders on Polymarket are positioning themselves ahead of the key political deadline. The chart updates in real time, reflecting shifts in sentiment as new information emerges about potential US actions toward Iran.

Compared to public polling averages, this market often reflects a more nuanced outlook, incorporating factors beyond voter sentiment such as diplomatic signaling and legislative developments. While polls may focus solely on public opinion, traders in this market weigh additional variables, sometimes leading to divergent expectations about the likelihood of new sanctions.

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A resolution occurs when official announcements or authoritative news sources confirm whether new sanctions have been imposed by the deadline, ending all trading activity and determining the final payout for participants.

Key signals include official statements from government leaders, diplomatic meetings between involved parties, and any emerging sanctions legislation introduced in relevant legislative bodies. Media reports suggesting imminent action or delays can also shift trader sentiment, potentially moving this market significantly as new information becomes available ahead of the resolution date.

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