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US housing starts for August
kalshi

What will US housing starts be for August?

Volume:
$1,270

Above 1.250M

 - Kalshi

Above 1.250M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 17, 2026

Closed: Sep 17, 8:29 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 1.250M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$242
N/A
N/A
$123
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.150M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.200M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1.300M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$333
N/A
N/A
$228
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.500M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$325
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.450M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$189
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.400M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$129
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 1.350M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This tracks expectations for new home construction activity in the United States during August 2026. It reflects forecasts of construction begins for residential buildings, offering insight into future housing supply dynamics. The outcome depends on whether official data shows construction starts surpassing various threshold levels.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the U.S. Census Bureau’s New Residential Construction release for August 2026, as displayed on Trading Economics. If the scheduled release is delayed or rescheduled, resolution uses the first official publication of the August 2026 Housing Starts value. Each market has a specific threshold: if the reported housing starts figure exceeds the respective threshold (ranging from 1.150M to 1.500M), the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The thresholds create a spectrum of outcomes, allowing participants to assess the likelihood of different levels of construction activity.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the dashboard for the US housing starts market tracks real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume of $648. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes for August construction begins, with charts illustrating recent volatility and overall volume of $1,270.

This market resolves around Sep 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Official housing starts data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development will determine the final result, closing all positions based on the verified figure.

Key signals include weekly building permit data releases, regional construction surveys, and federal housing policy updates—all of which can shift expectations for August starts. Major economic announcements affecting interest rates or homebuyer demand, as well as unexpected weather events impacting construction timelines, may also cause rapid price swings in this market.