TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

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US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

US GDP growth in Q3 2026?

Total volume:
$359,541
Volume 24h:
$20,591N/A
Liquidity:
$15,442
5%
Open interest:
$143,107
4%

Above 0.0%

 - Kalshi

Above 0.0% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Oct 30, 2026

Time left: 06d:16h:08m

Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026?

99%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
kalshi

Trade on Kalshi

Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 99% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: 84% Illiquid market 6 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.0%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$6,779
0%
0.5%
$6,347
6d 16h 8m
active
kalshi

Above 0.5%

Trade
99%
Yes 100¢No 1¢
1¢
N/A
$2,392
0%
0%
$1,910
6d 16h 8m
active
kalshi

Above 1.0%

Trade
98%
Yes 99¢No 2¢
1¢
N/A
$9,740
0%
0.04%
$7,256
6d 16h 8m
active
kalshi

Above 1.5%

Trade
94%
Yes 96¢No 6¢
2¢
N/A
$15,205
0%
2%
$9,302
6d 16h 8m
active
kalshi

Above 2.0%

Trade
92%
3%
Yes 91¢No 11¢
2¢
N/A
$82,457
4%
44%
$60,421
6d 16h 8m
active
polymarket

2.0–2.5%

Trade
9%
1%
Yes 10¢No 92¢
2¢
$2,805
$3,985
3%
5%
N/A
6d 6h 7m
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
88.2%
Yes 50.5¢No 51.5¢
Avg: 2¢Max: 2¢
kalshi

Above 2.5%

Trade
79%
Yes 80¢No 23¢
3¢
N/A
$32,714
6%
35%
$15,141
6d 16h 8m
active
polymarket

≥3.0%

Trade
65%
1%
Yes 66¢No 37¢
3¢
$2,584
$47,494
0.26%
7%
N/A
6d 6h 7m
active
kalshi

Above 3.0%

Trade
63%
Yes 62¢No 39¢
1¢
N/A
$31,678
7%
23%
$14,503
6d 16h 8m
active
kalshi

Above 3.5%

Trade
30%
2%
Yes 30¢No 71¢
1¢
N/A
$23,039
2%
21%
$10,626
6d 16h 8m
active
polymarket

2.5–3.0%

Trade
14%
2%
Yes 16¢No 87¢
3¢
$2,154
$5,196
1%
2%
N/A
6d 6h 7m
active
kalshi

Above 4.0%

Trade
11%
Yes 12¢No 89¢
1¢
N/A
$92,817
0.84%
4%
$17,601
6d 16h 8m
active
polymarket

1.5–2.0%

Trade
5%
Yes 7¢No 97.6¢
4.6¢
$1,933
$1,601
0%
4%
N/A
6d 6h 7m
active
polymarket

1.0–1.5%

Trade
3%
1%
Yes 3.3¢No 98.1¢
1.4¢
$1,809
$1,382
0%
3%
N/A
6d 6h 7m
active
polymarket

<0.5%

Trade
1%
Yes 0.8¢No 99.6¢
0.4¢
$2,478
$1,743
0%
2%
N/A
6d 6h 7m
active
polymarket

0.5–1.0%

Trade
0%
Yes 0.4¢No 99.8¢
0.2¢
$1,679
$1,318
2%
5%
N/A
6d 6h 7m
active
Total markets: 16

Description

This event group tracks the US GDP growth for Q3 2026, focusing on different growth thresholds and ranges across two prediction platforms. The markets will resolve based on the BEA’s seasonally adjusted and annualized Advance Estimate released in October 2026.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Threshold and range divergence between platforms creates potential for conflicting resolutionsHero tip: Focus trades on the platform whose threshold best matches your conviction. A single GDP print may resolve multiple markets differently across platforms.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Uses range-based questions (e.g., "between 0.5% and 1.0%", "greater than 3.0%") with explicit tie-breaking rule for exact bracket boundaries
  • Kalshi: Uses multiple binary thresholds (>0.0%, >0.5%, >1.0%, etc.) where any exceedance triggers a Yes resolution
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP "Advance Estimate" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 29, 2026. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product Note: data in the first available GDP report is labelled by the BEA as an "Advance Estimate". The data found in the advance estimate will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution. If the advance estimate is not released, this market will resolve based on the first officially published figure for real GDP for the specified quarter (e.g., the ‘second’ or ‘third’ estimate, etc.), as reported by the BEA. If no official estimate is released by the date the next quarter's advanced estimate is scheduled to be published, this market will resolve based on the most recent previous figure released by the BEA.

Kalshi

Resolution is based on the real GDP growth rate (seasonally adjusted and annualized) published by the BEA in the Advance Estimate for Q3 2026. Each market resolves Yes if the reported growth rate exceeds its respective threshold: 1.0%, 1.5%, 2.0%, or 2.5%. The resolution value is the one-decimal figure as published by the BEA. Markets close at 8:29 AM on the day of the expected data release and expire at the first 10:00 AM following the official release, or three months after the expected release date, whichever comes first.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the US Q3 2026 GDP growth market tracks aggregated predictions across platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi, showing the current consensus view and trading volume. It displays how likely various growth outcomes are according to market participants, with volume of $359,541 and 24-hour volume of $8,461. This real-time view helps users monitor sentiment shifts as we approach the resolution date.

Differences in user bases and trading activity between Polymarket and Kalshi can lead to price variations. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. For example, one platform might attract more retail traders reacting quickly to news, while the other could see steadier institutional participation. These dynamics mean Polymarket currently favors Will US GDP growth in Q3 2026 be greater than 3.0%? at 64.5%, while Kalshi leans toward Will **real GDP** increase by more than 0.0% in Q3 2026? at 99.0%. Such spreads often narrow as the event date approaches and information becomes clearer.

This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Economic agencies will publish the official Q3 2026 GDP figure, and platforms will close trading based on that data. Until then, market prices will continue to reflect evolving expectations about economic performance, policy moves, and global conditions that could influence growth.

Key signals include major economic indicators such as consumer spending reports, manufacturing surveys, and federal policy announcements. International developments like trade agreements or energy price shifts can also impact expectations. As Oct 30, 2026 approaches, any surprise revisions to prior quarterly data or abrupt changes in investor confidence may cause rapid movements in this market, making it responsive to both macro trends and short-term headlines.