What will US gas prices be?

On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers submit bids and asks, and trades occur when they match. The price of a contract reflects the probability of the corresponding outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly updating their expectations based on new information, causing prices to fluctuate. The current price represents the market’s best estimate of the likelihood of average gas prices reaching a specific level by the resolution date. Volume and open interest also play a role in price discovery.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the average US retail price of regular gasoline, as reported by a widely recognized and publicly available source. This market aims to reflect the prevailing price consumers are paying at the pump during the specified week. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the verified average gas price at the time of resolution.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market. Major geopolitical events impacting oil supply, such as conflicts in oil-producing regions or changes in OPEC+ production policies, are key catalysts. Unexpected disruptions to refinery operations due to weather events or technical issues could also drive price fluctuations. Furthermore, shifts in consumer demand, influenced by economic conditions or seasonal travel patterns, can impact gas prices. Finally, government policies related to energy, such as changes to fuel taxes or regulations, could also influence this market.