TOTAL VOLUME:
$134b
24H VOL:
$107,351,958
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,416,970,024
400,720
Markets across
30,097
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,633
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
Closed: May 29, 11:59 PM EST
Kalshi
This event tracks whether the average price of regular gasoline in the United States will exceed various price thresholds on May 30, 2026, according to AAA data. The market measures potential increases in gas prices over the coming years, reflecting concerns about fuel cost volatility and economic conditions affecting energy markets.
Prediction market odds on Kalshi reflect real-money trader expectations for US gas prices on May 30, 2026, often diverging from traditional analyst forecasts and energy sector reports. Markets incorporate forward-looking sentiment, geopolitical risk, and supply-demand dynamics faster than consensus surveys. Analysts typically publish quarterly or annual outlooks, while prediction markets update continuously. Comparing Kalshi odds to published energy forecasts from major financial institutions or the EIA can reveal where traders see asymmetric risk relative to expert consensus on mid-2026 gas pricing.
Major catalysts for US gas prices on May 30, 2026 include crude oil price movements, OPEC production decisions, refinery capacity changes, geopolitical tensions affecting global supply, US domestic inventory levels, seasonal demand shifts, and Federal Reserve monetary policy affecting the dollar. Hurricane season activity in the Gulf of Mexico, sanctions or trade policy shifts, and renewable energy adoption rates also influence pricing. Economic growth forecasts and inflation expectations shape longer-term energy demand. Traders on Kalshi continuously reassess these factors, causing odds to shift as new data and headlines emerge through mid-2026.