TOTAL VOLUME:
$134.2b
24H VOL:
$126,324,530
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,388,728,490
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,434,646,834
406,019
Markets across
30,401
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
2,689
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
39%
VS.
Kalshi:
61%
$
This event tracks whether average regular gasoline prices across the United States will exceed a specific threshold on June 1, 2026, as reported by the American Automobile Association (AAA). The outcome depends on actual market conditions and fuel pricing data on that date.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, US gas prices on Jun 1, 2026 are priced as binary or range-based contracts reflecting where the national average gas price will close on that date. Traders buy and sell shares at prices between 0 and 100 cents, with each cent representing implied probability. The market price reflects collective expectations about crude oil trends, refinery capacity, seasonal demand, and policy changes. As new information emerges—OPEC decisions, inventory reports, or geopolitical developments—the contract price adjusts to balance buyer and seller interest.
The US gas prices on Jun 1, 2026 market resolves on Jun 1, 2026. Resolution is determined by the official closing price of the national average retail gasoline price on that date, typically sourced from the U.S. Energy Information Administration or equivalent authoritative data. The exact methodology and price reference point are specified in the market's terms. Once the official figure is published and verified, the market settles and traders receive payouts based on which outcome bracket the final price fell into.
Major catalysts for US gas prices on Jun 1, 2026 include OPEC production decisions, geopolitical tensions affecting Middle Eastern oil supply, US crude inventory reports, refinery outages or maintenance, seasonal demand shifts, and Federal Reserve policy affecting the dollar and inflation expectations. Hurricane season activity in the Gulf of Mexico, international sanctions, and renewable energy adoption rates also influence crude and refined product markets. Economic recessions or growth surprises can shift demand forecasts significantly. Traders monitor these signals continuously to adjust positions ahead of resolution.