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404,028

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US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 8/7
kalshi

US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 8/7

Volume:
$16,325

Above 5,000

 - Kalshi

Above 5,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 7, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 4:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5,000

View
100%
78%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,958
N/A
N/A
$3,111
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4,000

View
100%
50%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$3,587
N/A
N/A
$1,786
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 2,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$747
N/A
N/A
$735
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3,000

View
100%
8%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$494
N/A
N/A
$394
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3,600

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
$122
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 1,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
$71
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3,700

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3,800

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3,900

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$35
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,341
N/A
N/A
$1,341
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 10,000

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$816
N/A
N/A
$815
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 8,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$513
N/A
N/A
$487
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6,000

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
$425
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 7,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
No
Total markets: 14

Description

These markets track the performance of the US aviation industry during a specific week, focusing on the total number of flight cancellations. The outcomes depend on whether cancellations exceed various thresholds, providing insight into potential disruptions or operational challenges in air travel.

Kalshi

The markets resolve based on the total number of flight cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for the week ending August 7, 2026, as reported by FlightAware. Each market has a specific threshold (ranging from 1,000 to 10,000 cancellations), and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the observed cancellation count exceeds that threshold. The Exchange checks the 'Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States this week' figure on FlightAware’s live weekly delay and cancellation page at 5pm EDT on August 7, 2026. All markets share the same data source and observation time, with outcomes determined solely by whether the cancellation count surpasses their respective thresholds.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, crowd-sourced assessment of risk factors like weather, labor issues, and fuel prices. While analysts may issue detailed reports based on historical data and models, traders on Kalshi adjust positions rapidly in response to breaking news, potentially offering a leading indicator of expected disruptions. The gap between these two can highlight areas where market participants diverge from expert opinions.

This market resolves around Aug 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the exact number of flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on August 7 is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final count will be compared against the market’s defined thresholds to determine which outcome — over or under — has occurred, settling all positions accordingly.

Events that could shift odds in this market include severe weather forecasts, airline crew strikes, fuel price spikes, or federal aviation regulatory changes. Any news indicating higher disruption risk typically pushes the probability upward, while signs of stable operations or improved economic conditions may lower it. Traders will also watch seasonal patterns and historical cancellation data as the Aug 14, 2026 approaches, adjusting bets based on emerging headlines and reported delays.