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US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 6/19
kalshi

US flight cancellations for the week ending at 5pm EDT on 6/19

Volume:
$878

Above 4000ㅤ

 - Kalshi

Above 4000ㅤ - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jun 19, 2026

Closed: Jun 19, 4:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 4000ㅤ

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$356
N/A
N/A
$351
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4400ㅤ

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$45
N/A
N/A
$45
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4200ㅤ

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$41
N/A
N/A
$41
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4600ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$325
N/A
N/A
$243
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 6000ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$37
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5800ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$29
N/A
N/A
$29
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5400ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5600ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$15
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4800ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5000ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 5200ㅤ

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
$5
Settled
No
Total markets: 11

Description

This event tracks the total number of flight cancellations occurring within, into, or out of the United States during the week ending June 19, 2026. The data is sourced from FlightAware's live weekly delay and cancellation tracking page and measured at 5pm EDT on June 19, 2026.

Kalshi

This event comprises multiple markets, each corresponding to a specific cancellation threshold. Each market resolves to Yes if the total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States for the week ending June 19, 2026 exceeds its designated threshold. The thresholds range progressively from 4000 to 6000 cancellations, increasing in 200-cancellation increments. The resolution value is determined by the figure displayed in the "Total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States this week" field on FlightAware's live weekly delay and cancellation page, as observed by the Exchange at 5pm EDT on June 19, 2026. Each threshold represents an independent market outcome, allowing participants to bet on whether cancellations will exceed specific levels of disruption.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, the US flight cancellations market dashboard displays real-time odds and historical price movement for the the US flight cancellations market, which centers on whether total cancellations within, into, or out of the United States during the week ending June 19, 2026 will exceed 4,800 flights. The dashboard shows current market pricing, 24-hour trading volume, and a price history chart so traders can monitor how sentiment shifts as new data on airline operations and weather disruptions emerge throughout the week.

Prediction market odds reflect real-money traders' collective assessment of cancellation risk and often incorporate faster-moving information than traditional analyst forecasts. While aviation industry analysts and the Department of Transportation publish weekly cancellation statistics and forward-looking commentary, this market aggregates live trader conviction into a single probability. Comparing the odds here to published analyst expectations can reveal whether the market is pricing in more or less disruption than experts publicly project.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous order-book mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing "yes" and "no" outcomes. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current odds reflect the balance of buy and sell pressure; as new information about weather, airline staffing, or operational challenges surfaces, traders adjust their positions, moving the price up or down. Liquidity and trading volume influence how quickly prices respond to breaking news.

This market resolves around Jun 26, 2026, once the week-ending data for June 19, 2026 becomes available and verifiable from credible public sources. The outcome is determined by the total number of flight cancellations within, into, or out of the United States during that specific week. Traders who correctly predicted whether cancellations would exceed the threshold receive their winnings, while those on the losing side forfeit their stake.

Major weather systems, airline labor actions, fuel supply disruptions, and airport infrastructure issues are key catalysts that could shift cancellation expectations. Published weekly cancellation reports from the Department of Transportation or industry trackers may prompt repricing as traders update their forecasts. Unexpected operational challenges at major hubs, crew shortages, or mechanical issues affecting large carrier fleets could also drive significant market movement closer to the resolution date.