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US existing home sales for August
kalshi

What will the US existing home sales be for August?

Volume:
$14,961

Above 3.90M

 - Kalshi

Above 3.90M - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Closed: Sep 10, 9:59 AM EST

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 3.90M

View
100%
10%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$5,684
N/A
N/A
$2,214
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.80M

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,862
N/A
N/A
$1,413
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 3.70M

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$245
N/A
N/A
$245
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 4.10M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,610
N/A
N/A
$2,672
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.00M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,937
N/A
N/A
$1,454
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.20M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$759
N/A
N/A
$705
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.30M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$498
N/A
N/A
$480
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 4.40M

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$365
N/A
N/A
$345
Settled
No
Total markets: 8

Description

This event tracks the performance of the U.S. residential real estate market by measuring the volume of previously owned homes sold in August 2026. The figure represents a key economic indicator reflecting consumer confidence, housing demand, and broader economic health. Participants assess whether sales will exceed various thresholds, providing insight into market expectations.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for U.S. existing home sales in August 2026, all based on the seasonally adjusted annual rate reported in millions of homes. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold, ranging from 3.70M to 4.40M. If the officially reported sales figure surpasses the threshold specified for a given market, that market resolves positively (Yes). All outcomes draw from the same authoritative source—Trading Economics, which publishes data provided by the National Association of Realtors. The resolution depends solely on whether the reported figure meets or exceeds each respective threshold, with no additional conditions or adjustments applied across markets.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the latest odds and price movements for the US existing home sales market, along with a chart of price history and current 24-hour volume of $664. It provides a real-time view of how traders on Kalshi are pricing this economic indicator, updated continuously throughout the trading day.

On Kalshi, this market is priced through trader activity, with odds reflecting the collective expectation of where the US existing home sales figure will land in August. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current top outcome and its probability offer a snapshot of market sentiment, while price history charts show how expectations have shifted over time. Volume of $14,961 provides insight into how much trading has occurred, and 24-hour volume of $664 highlights recent interest or volatility. Traders adjust positions based on economic data releases, analyst forecasts, and broader market trends affecting home sales.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official figures are verified against credible public sources. The final number will be drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau’s monthly report on residential real estate transactions, closing the market for settlement on Kalshi.

Several signals or events could shift expectations in this market before Sep 17, 2026. Key economic reports such as housing starts, building permits, mortgage rate trends, and consumer confidence indexes often influence forecasts for existing home sales. Major policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or significant shifts in interest rates can also impact buyer demand and market activity. Natural disasters, supply chain improvements, or unexpected changes in inventory levels may further affect outcomes. Media coverage of the housing sector and revisions to previously released data can also cause rapid price adjustments as traders reassess probabilities.