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US existing home: median sales price in August
kalshi

What will the US existing home median sales price be in August?

Volume:
$14,414

Above $425,000

 - Kalshi

Above $425,000 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 10, 2026

Closed: Sep 10, 9:59 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above $425,000

View
100%
21%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$825
N/A
N/A
$225
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $415,000

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $420,000

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$32
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above $435,000

View
0%
29%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,490
N/A
N/A
$1,693
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $445,000

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,509
N/A
N/A
$1,854
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $440,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,106
N/A
N/A
$1,523
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $450,000

View
0%
11%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$1,737
N/A
N/A
$324
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $430,000

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$405
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
No
kalshi

Above $455,000

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$229
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks whether the average price of previously owned homes sold in the United States during August 2026 will surpass various price thresholds. The outcome depends on official economic data released after the sales period. Participants assess housing market trends and economic indicators to predict price movements.

Kalshi

The event evaluates multiple thresholds for the Median Sales Price of Existing Homes in August 2026, all derived from the same underlying data source: the first value published by FRED for the August 2026 observation of Median Sales Price of Existing Homes (HOSMEDUSM052N), expressed in U.S. dollars and not seasonally adjusted. Each market corresponds to a specific price threshold, ranging from $415,000 to $455,000 in $5,000 increments. For any given market, if the published median sales price exceeds its respective threshold, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. All markets share the same data source and timing, ensuring consistency across thresholds, while each threshold provides a distinct measure of how high prices must rise to trigger a Yes outcome.

Frequently asked questions

On Kalshi, this dashboard tracks the real-time odds and price history for the US home price market, alongside daily trading volume of $1,912. It shows how traders on Kalshi are pricing the likelihood of different outcomes for the median sales price of existing homes in August, reflecting market sentiment and expectations based on the latest economic data and trends.

Currently, this market suggests a different outlook than many analyst forecasts, which can vary based on recent housing data, mortgage rates, and economic indicators. Traders are pricing in their expectations for price changes, often reacting more quickly to new information than traditional reports. The gap between market odds and analyst predictions can highlight areas of disagreement or emerging trends in the housing sector.

On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices based on their expectations for the median sales price of existing homes in August, using available economic indicators and market trends. The current top outcome reflects the most likely price range as judged by participants, with volume of $14,414 showing overall interest. Prices adjust continuously as new data emerges, influencing both the odds and the expected value.

This market resolves around Sep 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final median sales price for existing homes in August will be compared against the market’s defined price ranges, and the matching category will settle as the official result based on widely recognized sources.

Key signals include monthly housing reports, changes in mortgage rates, economic policy announcements, and shifts in consumer confidence. Any data showing unexpected changes in home sales, inventory levels, or pricing trends could cause rapid shifts in this market. Traders will also watch for geopolitical or financial shocks that might affect the broader economy and, consequently, home prices.