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US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026
kalshi

US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026

Volume:
$26,939

Above 5%

 - Kalshi

Above 5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Jul 30, 2026

Closed: Jul 30, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$7,980
N/A
N/A
$2,733
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 7.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$957
N/A
N/A
$464
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$8,942
N/A
N/A
$2,135
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$5,339
N/A
N/A
$1,975
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 12.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$3,721
N/A
N/A
$2,357
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Intro

This market tracks whether the US effective tariff rate in the second quarter of 2026 will exceed 5%, calculated by dividing customs duties collected by nominal imports of goods. The leading outcome currently stands at 93.0% on Kalshi. Resolution will be determined by official US economic data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, with the market settling on August 6, 2026, once Q2 2026 trade and tariff figures become available.

Kalshi

The effective tariff rate is calculated as customs duties collected divided by nominal imports of goods, using Federal Reserve data series B235RC1Q027SBEA and A255RC1Q027SBEA respectively. Each threshold (5%, 7.5%, 10%, 12.5%, and 15%) represents a separate outcome, with Yes resolution if the calculated rate exceeds that specific level during Q2 2026. The rate reflects the aggregate impact of all tariffs, trade agreements, and exemptions in effect during the quarter.

Frequently asked questions

The market resolves on Aug 6, 2026, after Q2 2026 concludes and official trade data becomes available. Resolution is determined by the actual effective tariff rate for the second quarter, calculated using BEA series B235RC1Q027SBEA (customs duties collected) divided by A255RC1Q027SBEA (nominal imports of goods). The outcome is binary: if the effective rate exceeds 15%, the affirmative resolves to yes; otherwise, it resolves no. Official government statistics released in the weeks following quarter-end provide the definitive settlement figure.

Key catalysts include tariff policy announcements or executive orders affecting duty rates or exemptions, trade negotiations with major partners, and shifts in import volumes by sector. Economic slowdown or acceleration could alter goods imports significantly, changing the denominator of the effective rate calculation. Congressional action on trade legislation, retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, and seasonal import patterns in Q2 also matter. Real-time customs data releases, inflation trends affecting nominal import values, and geopolitical developments influencing supply chains will all influence market pricing as traders reassess the probability of exceeding the 15% threshold.