TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US effective tariff rate for Q1 2026?
kalshi

US effective tariff rate for Q1 2026?

Volume:
$13,077

Above 7.5%

 - Kalshi

Above 7.5% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Apr 30, 2026

Closed: Apr 30, 8:29 AM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 7.5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2,271
N/A
N/A
$1,714
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 5%

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$886
N/A
N/A
$762
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 10%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,998
N/A
N/A
$2,293
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 12.5%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$4,726
N/A
N/A
$2,433
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 15%

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$197
N/A
N/A
$189
Settled
No
Total markets: 5

Description

The US effective tariff rate for the first quarter of 2026 will be calculated by dividing total customs duties collected by the nominal value of imported goods, and this event concerns whether that rate will exceed various threshold levels.