TOTAL VOLUME:

$147.3b

24H VOL:

$160,757,820

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,798,566,680

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,796,460,506

516,586

Markets across

38,144

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,845

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

38%

VS.

Kalshi:

62%

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US economic state at the end of 2026?
kalshi
polymarket

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Total volume:
$267,155
Volume 24h:
$228
99%
Liquidity:
$41,843
21%
Open interest:
$46,985
0.09%

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

all

2 markets

Polymarket

Kalshi

consensus

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Jan 31, 2027

Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?

79%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 80¢ buys you 125 shares | Odds: 79% Total Payout: $125 | Net Profit: $25 Multiplier: 1.25x | ROI: 25% | APY: 124% 100 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

Trade
79%
2%
Yes 80¢No 22¢
2¢
$10,477
$37,203
0.11%
11%
N/A
3mo 1w 3d
active
kalshi

Overheating

Trade
78%
1%
Yes 81¢No 21.9¢
2.9¢
N/A
$82,912
0.02%
57%
$24,652
2mo 3w
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
78.3%
Yes 80.5¢No 22¢
Avg: 2.5¢Max: 2.9¢
kalshi

Soft landing

Trade
18%
Yes 20.5¢No 82.6¢
3.1¢
N/A
$37,938
0%
23%
$8,516
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

Trade
18%
Yes 19¢No 84¢
3¢
$12,434
$51,015
0%
2%
N/A
3mo 1w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
17.7%
Yes 19.8¢No 83.3¢
Avg: 3.1¢Max: 3.1¢
kalshi

Stagflation

Trade
2%
Yes 3¢No 97.5¢
0.5¢
N/A
$30,439
0.15%
3%
$10,701
2mo 3w
active
polymarket

Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)

Trade
2%
Yes 2¢No 98.9¢
0.9¢
$10,693
$14,627
0.66%
6%
N/A
3mo 1w 3d
active
PredictionHero
PH Consensus
2.1%
Yes 2.5¢No 98.2¢
Avg: 0.7¢Max: 0.9¢
polymarket

Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)

Trade
1%
Yes 1.7¢No 99.7¢
1.4¢
$8,239
$7,491
0.43%
3%
N/A
3mo 1w 3d
active
kalshi

Slack / disinflation

Trade
0%
Yes 0.7¢No 99.8¢
0.5¢
N/A
$5,530
0%
8%
$3,117
2mo 3w
active
Total markets: 8

Description

This group forecasts the state of the US economy at the end of 2026, specifically focusing on the interplay between unemployment and inflation. The markets assess whether the economy will experience a 'soft landing', 'stagflation', 'overheating', or 'slack' based on these two key indicators.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi's market resolves to 'Yes' under all combinations of unemployment and inflation, while Polymarket defines specific economic states (Soft Landing, Stagflation, etc.) based on the same indicators.Hero tip: Kalshi's 'Yes' outcome is equivalent to *any* of the Polymarket outcomes. Consider hedging positions if you have a strong view on the specific economic state.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to specific economic states (Soft Landing, Stagflation, Overheating, Slack) based on unemployment and inflation thresholds. Requires both unemployment and inflation rates to fall within defined ranges to resolve to a specific outcome.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if *any* combination of unemployment (>=5% or <5%) and inflation (>=3.5% or <3.5%) occurs. Does not differentiate between economic states.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

The unemployment rate is defined as the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force, denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation release. The inflation rate is defined as the 12-month percent change in the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Consumer Price Index release. This market will resolve according to the unemployment rate and the inflation rate published for December 2026. If either the December 2026 inflation rate or the December 2026 unemployment rate is not published by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the most recently published available value of the rate for a month prior to December 2026. This market will resolve to “Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is less than 5.0% and the inflation rate is greater than or equal to 3.5%. This market will resolve to “Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)” if the unemployment rate is greater than or equal to 5.0% and the inflation rate is less than 3.5%. The resolution source for this market will be the Bureau of Labor Statistics, specifically its Employment Situation and Consumer Price Index releases.

Kalshi

Resolution depends on December 2026 data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics for the unemployment rate (U-3) and the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) 12-month percent change. Stagflation occurs when unemployment is at least 5% and inflation is at least 3.5%. A soft landing is characterized by unemployment below 5% and inflation below 3.5%. Overheating exists when unemployment is below 5% but inflation is at least 3.5%. Slack or disinflation occurs when unemployment is at least 5% but inflation is below 3.5%. The market closes at 8:25 AM on the day of the expected inflation data release for December 2026.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket and Kalshi, this market tracks predictions about the US economy in 2026. Currently, there's a consensus view forming around Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?, with combined volume across both platforms reaching $267,155. The current 24-hour volume is $228, indicating active trading and evolving sentiment. This dashboard aggregates data from these leading prediction markets to provide a comprehensive view of expectations for the economic state at the end of 2026. The combined insights offer a unique perspective beyond traditional forecasting methods.

Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts rely on models and reports, this market reflects the collective wisdom of traders who put their capital at risk based on their beliefs about the future. Currently, the implied probability of Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026? is significant, and this differs from some mainstream economic projections. This market can act as a valuable signal, potentially identifying areas where the crowd disagrees with conventional wisdom regarding the US economy in 2026. It’s a real-time assessment of probabilities, not just a point estimate.

Prices on Polymarket and Kalshi can diverge due to several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform has a different user base with varying information and risk tolerance, leading to differing opinions. Trading volume also plays a role; higher volume on one platform can lead to more efficient price discovery. Furthermore, slight differences in market rules or liquidity can contribute to price discrepancies. Currently, Polymarket shows a 1.0 difference in probability compared to Kalshi for Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?, reflecting these dynamics. These variations highlight the importance of aggregating data across multiple platforms.

This market resolves around Feb 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The determination will be based on publicly available economic data released by official sources, assessing the overall state of the US economy at that time. The specific indicators considered will be broadly recognized measures of economic health, reflecting a comprehensive assessment of the economic climate. Traders should monitor these key economic indicators as the resolution date approaches to inform their trading decisions.

Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Unexpected shifts in inflation, interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, geopolitical events, or major legislative changes could all influence trader sentiment. Stronger or weaker than expected employment reports, GDP growth figures, and consumer spending data will also be closely watched. Any significant economic shock, positive or negative, has the potential to move the odds considerably. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding the evolving predictions about the US economy in 2026.