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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 21?
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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 21?

Volume:
$5

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 21?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 21? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 21, 2026

Closed: Sep 21, 7:02 PM EST

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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 21?

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100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
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$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on September 21, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 21, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 21, 2026, or if September 21, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/TRY exchange rate increasing or decreasing by September 21. You'll find a live feed of trading activity, including the current price, 24-hour volume of $5, and total volume of $5. This allows you to see how traders are positioning themselves on the future direction of the exchange rate. The dashboard provides a clear visualization of market sentiment regarding this specific financial instrument, offering insights into expectations for the Turkish Lira's performance against the US Dollar.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast based on real money at risk. This differs from traditional analyst forecasts, which are often based on models and subjective opinions. While analyst predictions regarding the USD/TRY exchange rate may vary, this market provides a unique perspective – a weighted average of numerous individual predictions, each backed by financial investment. It's a useful exercise to compare the implied probability within this market to the consensus expectations found in financial news and reports, but remember that this market reflects what traders are *doing*, not just what they *say*.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/TRY exchange rate will be up or down on September 21. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as determined by supply and demand. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the price is to 100, the more confident traders are in an increase, while a price closer to 0 indicates a stronger belief in a decrease. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of market sentiment regarding the USD/TRY exchange rate.

This market resolves around Sep 21, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official USD/TRY exchange rate at a specified time on September 21, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the market’s launch. Traders will then be paid out based on their holdings in the 'Up' or 'Down' shares, reflecting the accuracy of their predictions.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 21, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Turkey, such as inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and employment numbers, are key catalysts. Geopolitical events, including any shifts in political stability or international relations involving either country, could also drive price movements. Central bank policy decisions regarding interest rates from the Federal Reserve and the Turkish Central Bank will be closely watched. Unexpected news regarding trade balances or significant shifts in global risk sentiment could also impact trading activity in this market.