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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 14?
polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$12

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 14?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 14? - Polymarket

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Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 14, 7:01 PM EST

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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on September 14?

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/TRY exchange rate increasing or decreasing by September 14. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $12, and the 24-hour volume, which is $12. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity surrounding the future direction of the USD/TRY exchange rate. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/TRY exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing the probability of an increase or decrease. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or differing interpretations of economic indicators. It’s important to note that analysts’ forecasts are often based on models and assumptions, whereas this market reflects real-time trading based on diverse information.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/TRY exchange rate will be up or down on September 14. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the rate will increase, the higher the price of ‘yes’ shares will climb, and vice versa for ‘no’ shares. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Sep 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Turkish Lira at a specified time on September 14. The direction of change – whether up or down – will be determined by comparing the rate at the resolution time to the rate at the market’s launch. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or acknowledge their losses based on the final outcome.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Sep 14, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Turkey, such as inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment numbers, will likely influence trading activity. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international relations or political instability within Turkey, could also cause substantial price swings. Additionally, unexpected policy announcements from the US Federal Reserve or the Turkish central bank regarding interest rates or currency interventions could dramatically impact the USD/TRY exchange rate and, consequently, this market.