US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on August 24? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on August 24?
Start: 2026-08-21T12:01:16.000Z
End: 2026-08-24T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the USD/TRY exchange rate market shows real-time odds, price trends, and 24-hour volume on Polymarket. It tracks how traders on this single venue price the likelihood of the U.S. dollar rising or falling against the Turkish lira by Aug 24, 2026. The display updates continuously to reflect market activity, giving users insight into speculative sentiment without aggregating data from other sources.

On Polymarket, odds for this market reflect collective trader expectations, which can diverge from traditional analyst forecasts. Where analysts may emphasize macroeconomics or policy shifts, market prices incorporate all available information and sentiment in real time. Comparing the two offers a contrast between institutional research views and decentralized, speculative betting trends.

On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders set prices through buying and selling contracts that represent either outcome. The current odds reflect the balance of bets placed, with volume of $25 and 24-hour volume of $25 showing liquidity. Prices adjust instantly to new information, allowing the market to price in unexpected economic releases or policy signals.

This market resolves around Aug 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Traders will see the result automatically reflected on Polymarket shortly after the close of the observation period, based on the official exchange rate data for that date.

Key signals include Turkish central bank announcements, U.S. Federal Reserve policy updates, geopolitical developments affecting either currency, and broader risk-off or risk-on sentiment in global markets. Domestic inflation data, energy prices, and diplomatic events involving Turkey or the United States can also shift trader expectations and move prices in this market.

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