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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$2,056

Above 0.801

 - Kalshi

Above 0.801 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.801

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$505
N/A
N/A
$505
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.807

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$411
N/A
N/A
$393
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.805

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$313
N/A
N/A
$313
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.799

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$251
N/A
N/A
$251
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.815

View
100%
99%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$234
N/A
N/A
$214
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.803

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$107
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on September 14?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.809

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.811

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$8
N/A
N/A
$8
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.813

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.789

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.791

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.793

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.795

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.797

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1
N/A
N/A
$1
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.817

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$200
N/A
N/A
$200
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.819

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.821

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.823

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.825

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.827

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group asks whether the US Dollar will be stronger or weaker against the Swiss Franc on September 14, 2026. The markets resolve based on the change in the USD/CHF exchange rate compared to the prior day's closing price, or based on specific price thresholds on a prior date.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Kalshi resolves based on a price on September 11th, while Polymarket resolves based on the price on September 14th, creating a significant divergence in the event being predicted.Hero tip: Consider the timing difference when trading these markets. Kalshi's market is effectively a prediction of the price on September 14th *based on* the price on September 11th, while Polymarket is a direct prediction of the price on September 14th.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves 'Up' if the USD/CHF close at 4:59 PM ET on September 14, 2026 is higher than the close on the prior reference day, using Pyth data. Resolves 'Down' if lower. 50-50 if equal.
  • Kalshi: Resolves 'Yes' if the USDCHF opening candlestick is above a series of thresholds (0.789 to 0.827) at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026. Essentially predicts the price on Sept 14th based on a threshold on Sept 11th.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDCHF exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate at that time is above its specified level, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth data is unavailable at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds often provide a valuable alternative perspective to traditional analyst forecasts. This market, focusing on the USD/CHF exchange rate, aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating a wider range of information and reacting more quickly to new developments than typical analyst reports. While analyst forecasts may rely on specific models and assumptions, the pricing here reflects real money at stake, incentivizing participants to make well-informed judgments. Discrepancies between market prices and forecasts can highlight differing expectations or overlooked factors influencing the exchange rate.

Differences in pricing between Polymarket and Kalshi for this market can arise from several factors. Polymarket and Kalshi can show different implied probabilities for the same outcome because of liquidity, fee structure, participant mix, and how each venue defines the contract. Each platform attracts a different user base with varying expertise and risk tolerance, leading to distinct trading behaviors. Trading volume can also vary significantly between the two, impacting price discovery. Furthermore, the specific market structures and fee schedules on each platform can influence trading strategies and, consequently, the observed prices. These factors contribute to the dynamic interplay between the two markets, even when addressing the same underlying question about the USD/CHF exchange rate.