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406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

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5

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39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on August 17?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on August 17?

Volume:
$5,218

Above 0.805

 - Kalshi

Above 0.805 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 17, 2026

Closed: Aug 14, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.805

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$741
N/A
N/A
$612
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.813

View
100%
60%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$545
N/A
N/A
$436
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.801

View
100%
3%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$524
N/A
N/A
$520
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.807

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$256
N/A
N/A
$244
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.811

View
100%
45%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$248
N/A
N/A
$244
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.803

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$221
N/A
N/A
$221
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.799

View
100%
4%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$202
N/A
N/A
$202
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.809

View
100%
17%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$181
N/A
N/A
$121
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.789

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.791

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.793

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.795

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.797

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.819

View
0%
16%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$602
N/A
N/A
$403
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.823

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$496
N/A
N/A
$211
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.817

View
0%
24%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$402
N/A
N/A
$300
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.815

View
0%
34%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$313
N/A
N/A
$305
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.827

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$292
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.825

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$179
N/A
N/A
$101
Settled
No
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on August 17?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.821

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/CHF exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 17, 2026, compared to a reference point. The markets differ in how they define the reference point and resolution criteria.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The two platforms use fundamentally different reference points and thresholds for resolution: Polymarket uses August 17 closing price vs prior reference day, while Kalshi uses August 14 opening candlestick thresholds.Hero tip: Traders should treat these as separate bets with distinct resolution criteria. Do not assume correlation between the two markets.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if August 17 closing price > prior reference day closing price; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses Pyth 4:59 PM ET close values.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if August 14 opening candlestick is above any of the listed thresholds (0.789 to 0.827); otherwise No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on August 17, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 17, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 17, 2026, or if August 17, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDCHF exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5:00 PM EDT on August 14, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate at that time is above the specified level, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

Key signals include central bank announcements, especially from the Federal Reserve or Swiss National Bank, and major economic data releases such as U.S. CPI or Swiss GDP revisions. Geopolitical risk or sudden capital flow shifts can also impact this market, as can shifts in risk appetite affecting safe-haven demand for the Swiss franc.