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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$7,102

Above 0.799

 - Kalshi

Above 0.799 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 7, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 0.799

View
100%
7%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$1,367
N/A
N/A
$1,124
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.801

View
100%
9%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$927
N/A
N/A
$617
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.805

View
100%
16%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$740
N/A
N/A
$598
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.803

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$484
N/A
N/A
$299
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.789

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$447
N/A
N/A
$443
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.797

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$431
N/A
N/A
$330
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.807

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$312
N/A
N/A
$193
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.795

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$126
N/A
N/A
$126
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on August 10?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$122
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.791

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.793

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 0.813

View
0%
27%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$778
N/A
N/A
$740
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.821

View
0%
4%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$685
N/A
N/A
$626
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.809

View
0%
20%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$222
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.815

View
0%
31%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
$115
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.819

View
0%
19%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$105
N/A
N/A
$105
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.823

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$87
N/A
N/A
$87
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.811

View
0%
32%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
$69
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.827

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$11
N/A
N/A
$11
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.817

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 0.825

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks whether the USD/CHF exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 10, 2026, compared to a reference point. The outcome depends on specific price thresholds and comparison methodologies defined by each platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets use fundamentally different resolution criteria: Kalshi relies on a single price check at a specific time on August 7 against fixed thresholds, while Polymarket compares closing prices across two distinct dates with specific data-fallback rules.Hero tip: Traders should treat these as separate bets with distinct risk profiles. Kalshi's market resolves purely on August 7 data, while Polymarket's depends on August 10 data relative to the prior reference day. Monitor both price action and trading calendar anomalies.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to Up if August 10 closing price > prior reference day closing price; Down if lower; 50-50 if equal. Uses Pyth 4:59 PM ET close values with specific fallback logic for missing data.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to Yes if USDCHF opening candlestick at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026 is above any of 39 sequential thresholds from 0.789 to 0.827; otherwise resolves No.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 10, 2026, or if August 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDCHF exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5:00 PM EDT on August 7, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold; if the rate is above its respective threshold at that time, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at exactly 5:00 PM EDT, the most recent available value before that time will be used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate will not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the USD/CHF direction market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing how traders across Polymarket and Kalshi price this market. It displays current odds, volume of $7,102, and 24-hour volume of $724, offering a consensus view of where the market stands on the movement of the USD/CHF pair.

Between now and resolution, this market could be influenced by major economic indicators such as U.S. and Swiss inflation data, interest rate decisions from the Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank, and geopolitical developments affecting currency flows. Any surprise announcements or market reactions to these events may shift odds rapidly.