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404,175

Markets across

30,277

events

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2,685

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5

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39%

VS.

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61%

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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on September 14?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on September 14?

Volume:
$2,154

Above 9.659

 - Kalshi

Above 9.659 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Sep 14, 2026

Closed: Sep 11, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 9.659

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$239
N/A
N/A
$239
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.657

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$239
N/A
N/A
$164
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.611

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$190
N/A
N/A
$119
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.677

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$176
N/A
N/A
$176
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.625

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$128
N/A
N/A
$99
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.609

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$124
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.615

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$115
N/A
N/A
$38
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.617

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$106
N/A
N/A
$106
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.613

View
100%
13%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$104
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.579

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$89
N/A
N/A
$86
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.581

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$77
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.607

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$71
N/A
N/A
$51
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.671

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$57
N/A
N/A
$47
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.601

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$56
N/A
N/A
$56
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.679

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$55
N/A
N/A
$55
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.623

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$44
N/A
N/A
$31
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.697

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$30
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.583

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.673

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$27
N/A
N/A
$27
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.675

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.637

View
100%
5%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$17
N/A
N/A
$15
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.619

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$16
N/A
N/A
$16
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.599

View
100%
11%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
$10
Settled
Yes
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on September 14?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$12
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.681

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$9
N/A
N/A
$9
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 61

Description

This prediction market asks whether the US Dollar will be stronger or weaker against the Swedish Krona on September 14, 2026. 'Up' means the USD/SEK exchange rate will be higher than its value on the preceding reference day, and 'Down' means it will be lower. The markets use different methodologies to determine the reference price and resolve the outcome.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: The markets diverge significantly in their settlement methodologies. Kalshi uses a series of thresholds on a specific date (September 11th), while Polymarket compares the closing price on September 14th to the prior day's closing price.Hero tip: Be aware that Kalshi's market resolves *before* the date referenced in the market name, and is based on a series of specific price levels. Polymarket's market is a direct comparison of the price on the target date to the prior day.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to 'Up' if the USD/SEK closing price on September 14, 2026, is higher than the closing price on the prior reference day, using Pyth data. Handles missing data by using the last valid price before 5:00 PM ET.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to 'Yes' if the USDSEK opening candlestick is above any of the specified thresholds (9.579 - 9.689) at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026. No 'Down' outcome is explicitly defined; the market is effectively a series of binary bets.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on September 14, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 14, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 14, 2026, or if September 14, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDSEK exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on September 11, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each individual market has a specific threshold value; if the rate at that exact time is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. All calculations use values rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact expiration time, the most recent available value before that time will be used. No adjustments are made for revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration timestamp.

Frequently asked questions

Prediction market odds, like those found in this market, often represent a 'wisdom of the crowd' perspective, aggregating diverse opinions and information. This can provide a different signal than traditional analyst forecasts, which may be influenced by biases or specific methodologies. While analyst forecasts can be valuable, the real-time price discovery in prediction markets allows for rapid adjustments based on new information. It's important to consider both sources of insight when evaluating the potential movement of the USD/SEK exchange rate, as this market reflects collective belief.

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact the USD/SEK exchange rate and, consequently, this market. Key US economic data releases, such as inflation reports or Federal Reserve policy announcements, could strengthen or weaken the dollar. Similarly, Swedish economic data, including GDP growth or Riksbank interest rate decisions, could influence the krona. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in global risk sentiment could also trigger movements in this market. Monitoring these factors will be crucial for understanding potential price fluctuations.