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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on August 24?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on August 24?

Volume:
$1,942

Above 9.475

 - Kalshi

Above 9.475 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 24, 2026

Closed: Aug 21, 5:00 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 9.475

View
100%
69%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$172
N/A
N/A
$77
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.421

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$125
N/A
N/A
$125
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.465

View
100%
31%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.423

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.463

View
100%
26%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$82
N/A
N/A
$32
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.461

View
100%
47%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$73
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.469

View
100%
42%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.473

View
100%
34%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.441

View
100%
57%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.471

View
100%
32%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$35
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.467

View
100%
46%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.435

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.437

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.439

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$26
N/A
N/A
$26
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.457

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.455

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.443

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.445

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.447

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.449

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.451

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.453

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.429

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.431

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.433

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 25 of 41

Description

This event group determines whether the USD/SEK exchange rate will be higher or lower on August 24, 2026, compared to a reference day. The resolution depends on specific price thresholds and reference mechanisms defined by each platform.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in resolution logic: Polymarket uses a comparative price method on August 24, while Kalshi uses threshold-based logic on August 21.Hero tip: Trade cautiously due to fundamentally different resolution mechanics. Polymarket uses a comparative price method, while Kalshi uses a threshold-based approach on a different date and time.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Resolves to "Up" if the Pyth closing price on August 24, 2026 is higher than the closing price on the most recent prior reference day. Resolves to "Down" if lower. Ties resolve 50-50. Uses Pyth data at 4:59 PM ET closes.
  • Kalshi: Resolves to "Yes" if the USD/SEK opening candlestick is above any of 40 specified thresholds at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026. No explicit "No" outcome is defined, implying all other outcomes resolve as "No".
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on August 24, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 24, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 24, 2026, or if August 24, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDSEK exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 21, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold, ranging from 9.461 to 9.499; if the rate at that time is above the respective threshold, the market resolves to Yes, otherwise to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish data at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Post-expiration revisions to the exchange rate do not affect the resolution.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the USD/SEK exchange rate market aggregates data from multiple venues so you can monitor real-time odds, trading volume, and consensus views in one place. It shows how platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi price this market, letting you compare probabilities and spot trends as the event approaches. With total volume at $1,942 and 24-hour volume of $658, the dashboard reflects trader sentiment and liquidity across the ecosystem.

Key signals that could shift odds in this market include central bank announcements from the U.S. or Sweden, especially regarding interest rate decisions or forward guidance, as well as major economic data releases such as inflation figures, employment reports, or GDP updates. Geopolitical developments and market sentiment driven by broader risk-on or risk-off trends may also influence trader positioning. Any surprise policy moves or shifts in currency strength will likely cause rapid adjustments in probability estimates on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi.