TOTAL VOLUME:

$134.1b

24H VOL:

$141,541,542

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,388,728,490

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,440,096,988

406,065

Markets across

30,522

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

2,692

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

39%

VS.

Kalshi:

61%

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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on August 10?
kalshi
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on August 10?

Volume:
$746

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on August 10?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on August 10? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Aug 10, 2026

Closed: Aug 10, 7:01 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on August 10?

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
0.1¢
N/A
$42
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 9.541

View
0%
43%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$102
N/A
N/A
$102
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.523

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$100
N/A
N/A
$100
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.525

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$75
N/A
N/A
$75
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.527

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.533

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.543

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.545

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.559

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$50
N/A
N/A
$50
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.535

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.537

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.547

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.549

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.553

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.555

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.557

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$25
N/A
N/A
$25
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.539

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
100¢
N/A
$2
N/A
N/A
$2
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.521

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.529

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.531

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 9.551

View
N/A
N/A
100¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 21

Description

This event group tracks the performance of the USD/SEK currency pair on August 10, 2026. The outcome depends on whether the pair's value increases or decreases compared to a reference point, with different platforms using distinct methodologies to determine the result.

PredictionHero - Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA)

Divergence Detected

Issue: Fundamental divergence in settlement methodology: Kalshi uses an opening candlestick threshold on August 7, while Polymarket uses a comparative close price movement on August 10.Hero tip: Do not assume correlation between these markets; treat them as independent bets due to completely different resolution triggers.

Critical divergence points:

  • Polymarket: Compares Pyth closing prices between August 10, 2026 and the prior reference day; resolves to Up, Down, or 50-50 based on relative movement.
  • Kalshi: Checks if USD/SEK opening candlestick at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026 exceeds any of 20 progressively higher thresholds; resolves to Yes or No only.
Our PredictionHero Resolution Divergence Alerts (RDA) are there to help users identify potential differences across platforms. They do not replace or supersede the official rules and description of any prediction market. Users are solely responsible for reviewing and understanding the applicable rules and resolution criteria before placing any trade or bet. If you notice a potential inconsistency, discrepancy, or error in an alert, please report it to our team so we can review and improve the accuracy of our data.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on August 10, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including August 10, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on August 10, 2026, or if August 10, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the USDSEK exchange rate's opening candlestick value at 5pm ET on August 7, 2026, as published by Pyth. Each market has a unique threshold value, ranging from 9.521 to 9.559. If the rate at that time is above the specified threshold, the market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. Data is rounded to four decimal places. If Pyth does not publish a value at the exact time, the most recent available value is used. Any revisions to the exchange rate after the expiration time are disregarded when determining the outcome.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the USD/SEK exchange rate market aggregates data from multiple venues, showing real-time consensus and divergence across platforms. It displays current odds, volume of $746, and 24-hour volume of $46, letting users see how traders on different sites price this market. The view condenses complex cross-platform activity into a single snapshot, useful for spotting consensus or splits in expectations for the currency pair’s movement.

Key signals include Swedish and U.S. central bank announcements, especially any surprise rate moves or forward guidance shifts. Swedish inflation prints, U.S. nonfarm payrolls, and broader risk-on or risk-off sentiment swings also heavily influence currency flows. Political developments affecting either economy, or sharp moves in correlated pairs, can rapidly shift this market as traders reprice expectations ahead of the August close.