US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on September 28? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on September 28?
Start: 2026-09-25T12:01:23.000Z
End: 2026-09-28T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on September 28, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including September 28, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on September 28, 2026, or if September 28, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the USD/KRW exchange rate tracks the current probabilities associated with the market resolving Up or Down by Sep 28, 2026. You can view the implied probabilities of each outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $10. The total volume traded on this market is $10. This provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential movement of the exchange rate, offering insights into market sentiment regarding the US Dollar's performance against the South Korean Won.

Currently, prediction market participants are strongly indicating a specific direction for the USD/KRW exchange rate. It's important to note that these predictions represent the collective wisdom of individuals wagering their own capital, which can differ from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may consider macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market reflects a more immediate assessment of potential price movement. Comparing this market to broader consensus estimates can reveal whether traders anticipate factors not fully captured in conventional analyses, or if they simply disagree with the prevailing outlook.

This market resolves around Sep 28, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the USD/KRW exchange rate is higher or lower on September 28th compared to its value at the start of that day. The specific exchange rate used for determination will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of whether the market correctly predicted the direction of the exchange rate movement.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Sep 28, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from either the United States or South Korea, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could trigger shifts in the USD/KRW exchange rate. Geopolitical events, including developments in North Korea or trade negotiations, also have the potential to create volatility. Furthermore, statements from central bank officials regarding monetary policy could impact investor sentiment and move this market. Any surprise announcements or shifts in global risk appetite could also play a role in the price action.

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